MLB-threeSIXTYfive

Cubs: Does winning now sacrifice the future?

2007-04-01T12:00:00.000-05:00

The 2007 Major League Baseball season begins this week with a rejuvenated feeling around the league. Many teams through out the league will field drastically different units from the previous season. The Dodgers, Red Sox and Giants to name a few, remained in the headlines with multiple off-season acquisitions but no franchise in baseball re-constructed their current team like the Chicago Cubs. While the addition of the free-agent market's marquee talent in Alfonso Soriano garnered the bulk of the attention, the signing that will effect this team the most--positively or negatively--is incumbent manager Lou Piniella.

Even the casual baseball fan is aware of Lou's career accolades as a manager. Piniella is one of baseball's Look at what Bochy did with a lack luster talent pool in San Diego. There has been no offensive production (save Adrian Gonzalez last season) to speak of since Brian Giles' first season with the Padres.....and the Padres still remained in the thick of the NL West race for the better part of a decade.

Don't get me wrong, Lou will push this team and not tolerate failure. It is just my contention that Bochy may have actually been a better fit for the CUBS.....long term perhaps. Lou is just looking for a quick resume fix to get into the Hall of Fame. He's in his 60's and doesn't plan on staying in Chicago long....

I also liked Girardi. Joe's aggressive coaching style--reminiscent of the management of baseball's golden era-- is exactly the disciplinary measure this franchise needs in order to progress. Girardi's tolerance of poor fundamentals is non-existent.

Anyway, I felt that any of the three would have been a great fit....it's just the CUBS may have missed out on more of a long term solution....

the reason I mentioned long-term is because you have to look down the road and not just at the present day. Many White Sox fans are disappointed in the fact that Freddy Garcia was moved for practically nothing, but Kenny Williams is stocking his farm system with talented arms that are a.) going to help his team win in the future and b.) will not even be arbitration eligible for a number of years to come.

Look, we have all seen the outrageous contracts signed by pitchers in the past two seasons and the White Sox are going to have the luxury of allocating their finances in other aspects due to Williams' moves this winter.

I realize my original train of thought was a little derailed, but whether it's management or player talent that we are talking about.....you need to prepare for the future.

Now, aside from the management (and who knows, I am under the impression that Lou is grooming Alan Trammell to be his successor in Chicago) the CUBS have prepared for the future recently. In regards to future pitching prospects, the CUBS have real talent in their system with Samardzija, Veal, Gallagher and Pawelek. It's great that the CUBS haven't already moved any of them. Donald Veal for example may have a chance to crack the rotation by mid-2008 and Gallagher as early as spring 2008 (he has 5 pitches in his repertoire and 3 above average). The CUBS have much better depth in their system in regards to young pitchers than their cross town rivals.

We also tend to forget that the CUBS have major league tested starters in their minor league system. Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Carlos Marmol, Juan Mateo, etc. all have real value to the team and as chips for trading in the near future. You could argue that this secondary group of pitchers lacks the raw talent (aside from the oft-injured Angel Guzman) but don't under value the fact that they are a step above many other prospects because they have major league experience.

Our on going moniker or rather slogan is "wait until next year" and "this year is here". But why can't it be this year, next and the year after that?

I know you are all sick of chasing a pennant one season only to finish fifth or...gasp....sixth in the division a short time after.

I would like a perennial contender. A team built in the mold of the St. Louis Cardinals, the Oakland Athletics and yes, even the New York Yankees.

It's not completely unfathomable idea or even expectation to believe that this team could.....rather SHOULD...contend every year. This organization has talent on the field, in the minors and the finances to acquire more of both.

Why can't they contend every year?

Early Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - March 24, 2007

2007-03-24T11:09:00.000-05:00

Most fantasy drafts occurred this week and owners are already over-analyzing their roster in hopes to win their league. While every baseball fan--casual or obsessive--realizes the sleeper potential in the annually injured all-stars such as Mark Prior, Rich Harden, Rocco Baldelli, Ben Sheets, Carl Pavano and Kerry Wood, there are a few names that even the most dedicated fantasy player may over look while preparing their roster......

B.J. Upton (3B - TB) - Although he is not guaranteed a spot on the Devil Rays 25 man opening day roster, Upton may prove to be a solid late-round/waiver wire pick. B.J. combines great speed and above average power that could generate 17-20 HR and 30 SB for your team if healthy. His dismal 2006 is cause for concern, but consider adding him to your bench or keep a watchful eye on his progress this year.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS - COL) - It was just announced yesterday that Troy is the opening day starter in Arizona and could be the front runner for R.O.Y. in the NL. He has decent pop and great contact. You could be rewarded with 20 HR and 10 SB at the end of the regular season. Since there aren't many great options at SS after Reyes, Jeter and Hanley Ramirez are off the board, focus on stronger corner infield hitters and take a flier on Troy.

Jonathon Broxton (RP - LAD) - As it stands, Takashi Saito is the opening day closer in LA and rightfully so. In 2006, Saito posted a 2.88 ERA with 28 saves for the Dodgers down the stretch. That being said, Jonathon Broxton is the Dodgers' future closer. The burly Broxton has incredible power and stature (275 lbs.) and maintains an incredibly high K/IP ratio. Don't pick him up right away, unless you have DL eligibility in your league, but definitely check up on him through out the season.

Zach Greinke (SP - KC) - Greinke returns in 2007 from one of the most peculiar seasons in modern day baseball history. In 2006, Greinke missed the majority of the season due to mental illness. At age 23, his best years are far from over. He is pitching great this spring and appears to be a lock to make the Royals team out to start the season. His strikeout totals will never be very high, but he may bring 15 wins and a near 3.00 ERA to your fantasy team.

Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland (SP - CHW) - For some reason, the White Sox still are over looked. After winning the 2005 World Series and following with 90 wins in 2006, one would think that the South Siders would earn some respect. Heading into the 2007 season, the Sox are STILL an after thought to many "experts". The AL Central is baseball's strongest division, but the Sox still possess the weapons to win the division. Garland, Contreras, Buehrle and Vazquez might all win 15 games this season and post ERA's in the 4's. Contreras and Vazquez may be the steals in the bunch for roto play because of their high K rate. If you can pick up any of the White Sox starters on the cheap, do it. Also keep an eye on top prospect John Denks. He is the front runner for the fifth starter spot and may be the most talented pitcher in the organization.

Rich Hill (SP - CHC) - Calling Hill a "sleeper" may be a bit of a stretch, but the 27 year old curveball specialist appears to have finally realized his potential at the Major League level. Long considered one of AAA's most dominant pitchers (in 15 games with the Iowa Cubs, Hill compiled a 7-1 record with 135 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA in 100 innings,) Hill translated his success at the minor league level in the next stage late last season. From August 1-September 27, Hill finished 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA (lowering his season ERA from 7.92 on August 1 to a 4.17 to finish the season) in 76 2/3 innings of work while striking out 78--only allowing 22 earned runs and 21 walks. Rich has maintained an incredible K/9 IP ratio through out his career (12.49 in his minor league career) and may prove to be the best #4 starter in all of baseball.

Other late round fliers include - Alex Gordon (3B - KC), Josh Hamilton (OF - CIN), Octavio Dotel (RP - KC), Matt Kemp (OF - LAD), Chris Iannetta (C - COL) and Dave Bush (SP - MIL).

MLB 365: Ranking the bullpens - Part 2

2007-03-03T10:40:00.000-06:00

11- 20 -

20.

- The Cleveland Indians entered the 2006 season one of the favorites to win the World Series. Due in large part to inconsistent performances from their bullpen, the Indians not only failed to reach the post-season--they finished the season under .500 at 78-84. To his credit, GM Mark Shapiro placed great emphasis on addressing his bullpen needs this past winter. Shapiro signed veteran Roberto Hernandez, Marlins' closer Joe Borowski and former Red Sox closer Keith Foulke. Rather than reporting to Spring Training when pitchers and catchers were scheduled to arrives, Foulke opted to retire. Borowski is now the favorite to begin the season as closer with the possibility of Hernandez, Rafael Betancourt or Aaron Fultz to fill in if Borowski fails to adjust to closing in the AL. If the aging Hernandez and Borowski can continue to pitch well past their prime, the Indians will give the Tigers, Twins and White Sox a run for their money at the top of the AL Central.

19.

- The obvious strength the Nationals possess in their bullpen is All-Star Chad Cordero at closer. Cordero continued to build upon his incredible break-through season of 2005 last season posting a 7-4 record with 29 saves and a 3.19 ERA. Aside from Cordero, Jon Rauch continued his evolution as an effective reliever for Washington. Rauch managed a 4-5 record with a 3.35 ERA and 86 strike outs in 91 1/3 innings of work in 2006. Luis Ayala, Saul Rivera and Ryan Wagner should help stabilize the 'pen until Rauch and Cordero are ready. Overall, the bullpen remains a stronger part of an incredibly depleted team.

18.

- Although they have failed to finish above .500 since Barry Bonds left following the 1992 season, the Pirates steadily started to show signs of improvement. One of the stronger aspects of this year's Pirates team is their depth in the bullpen. The closer role is still up in the air after stopper Mike Gonzalez was traded this winter to the Braves for Adam LaRoche, but their are quite a few pitchers in competition to succeed him. Former Nationals starter Tony Armas Jr., Damaso Marte and Salomon Torres are the top candidates to start the season as closer. The break through performances of Josh Sharpless, Matt Capps and Marty McLeary through out the 2006 season give the Pirates a surplus of reliable relief this year. The Pirates are definitely improved as a whole in 2007, but are still likely to finish last in the NL Central.

17.

- Similar to the Boston Red Sox, the St. Louis Cardinals will enter the 2006 season with a number of questions in regards to their bullpen. When struggling closer Jason Isringhausen suffered a season ending injury last summer, the Cardinals turned to then 25 year old Adam Wainwright to fill in towards the end of the regular season and through out the post-season. With a seemingly healthy Isringhausen in camp this spring, Wainwright will continue to develop as a starting pitcher in 2007. Also, the departures of Jeff Weaver, Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan and Mark Mulder on the shelf until June, may force set-up man Braden Looper to fill in a slot at the back of the rotation. Brad Thompson and Josh Kinney looked solid out of the bullpen all season in 2006, Isringhausen remains the primary concern. Prior to his injury, Izzy was inconsistent at best. Although he posted a respectable 3.55 ERA in 59 appearances, Izzy led the NL in blown saves with 10. St. Louis' pitching coach Dave Duncan has been credited in the past for his exemplary development of pitchers and will definitely face one of his greatest challenges to date this summer.

16.

- The Phillies quietly have amassed one of the NL's better bullpens. Last season, the Phillies benefited from an incredible breakthrough season by righty Geoff Geary in relief work. Geary was the unsung workhorse of the bullpen. In 2006, Geary pitched more innings (91 1/3) than he had in his entire career up to that point--posting a 7-1 record with a 2.96 ERA. 22 year old lefty Fabio Castro will look to improve upon his late season surge in 2006 in which he posted a 2.27 ERA in 31 2/3 innings of work. Closer Tom Gordon enter this season at age 39. While still effective, Gordon is likely very close to the end. Also, if former 21 game winner Jon Lieber remains healthy, he may be the difference at long relief. Although there are big question marks in Ryan Madson and veteran Antonio Alfonseca, the Phillies bullpen will be a more than adequate complement to a very good starting rotation.

15.

- After GM J.P. Riccardi's spending splurge two years ago, the Blue Jays instantly became a realistic contender in the AL East. Behind the dominating performance of former Oriole B.J. Ryan at closer, the bullpen also developed into one of the stronger units in the AL. In 2006, Ryan saved 38 games with 86 strikeouts in 72 1/3 innings with a dazzling 1.37 ERA--only allowing 3 home runs all season. Youngsters Brandon League and lefty Brian Tallet finished strong a season ago in limited relief and will begin the 2007 in Toronto. Look for Jason Frasor to improve upon a solid second half last season. Prior to the All-Star Break last season, Frasor struggles (19 ER in 33 innings) cost him a demotion to AAA - Syracuse in July. Upon his return, Frasor dominated AL hitters posting a 2.65 ERA in 18 games. Despite the annual additions by the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays still look to remain very competitive in the East.

14.

- Newly appointed Padres manager Bud Black has an extremely difficult task ahead of him this season in a vastly improved division. The San Diego Padres may not boast the league's most feared lineup everyday, but their pitching clearly compensates for a lack luster offense. Both the starting rotation and relief corps are great strengths entering this season. At age 39, Trevor Hoffman returns for his 14th season in baseball after posting an incredible 2.12 ERA with an NL best 46 saves. On September 24, 2006, Trevor passed Lee Smith as baseball's All-Time saves leader with 479 (482 to finish the season). One of this winter's most coveted relievers Scott Linebrink will reprise his role as Hoffman's eighth inning counterpart. Linebrink struggled at times a season ago, but still managed a 3.57 ERA in 73 games in his 4th season as a Padre. Relievers Scott Cassidy and Cla Meredith are each returning from incredible break out seasons and add reliable depth in the bullpen. As a whole, this aging Padres group has a very good chance to win a 3rd consecutive NL West title--but it may be their last.

13.

- Last season, the Reds decided to focus on rebuilding their bullpen. GM Wayne Krivsky's dedication to repairing the bullpen meant trading off young sluggers Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns. With the additions of Gary Majewski (part of the Kearns/Lopez deal with Washington), Rheal Cormier, Mike Stanton and recently Kirk Saarloos, Krvisky definitely succeeded. The big question is still at closer, where the competition is likely between Todd Coffey and David Weathers to fill that role. After Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, the starting rotation is unreliable at best. Whether or not super-prospect Homer Bailey makes the rotation early on is yet to be seen, let alone pitch effectively. While the Reds wait for Bailey to flourish, the bullpen is likely going to be relied on heavily after Arroyo and Harang's rotation spots.

12.

- As a whole, the Baltimore Orioles will be hard pressed to compete in the AL East. But the bullpen has become one of the finest in the American League. The Orioles added a plethora of talented relievers this past off-season. Danys Baez, Scott Williamson, Chad Bradford and Jaime Walker were all signed to complement closer Chris Ray in the bullpen. Lefty Jaime Walker cashed in on his career season with the Tigers in 2006. In 56 games (48 innings), Walker only allowed 15 earned runs for a career best 2.81 ERA. Although he struggled while splitting time with the Dodgers and Braves in 2006, Danys Baez is still one of the game's better set-up men. Baez has a 3.79 ERA in 341 innings with 111 saves throughout his 6 year career. If Baez, Williamson and Hayden Penn rebound from off years, the Orioles may have the best relief corps in the AL East. As opposed to their divisional rival Red Sox, the Orioles starting rotation is clearly the team's weakness and the bullpen will be relied on heavily through out the season.

11.

- While many questions surround the Astros' starting rotation, their bullpen has the potential to be one of the best the National League has to offer. One lingering question in Houston (aside from that Roger Clemens guy) is whether or not closer Brad Lidge will re-establish himself as the NL's most dominant closer of 2005. With set up man Dan Wheeler continuing to impress manager Phil Garner nearly every outing, Lidge will begin the season on a short leash. In his second season with the Astros, Wheeler posted a 2.52 ERA in 75 games (71 1/3 innings) with 9 saves in 12 chances. Another name to consider in the event that Lidge falters is Chad Qualls. In 81 games (88 1/3 innings), Qualls may have failed to earn a save in 6 opportunities, but posted a respectable 3.76 ERA in only his third season with the Astros. Aside from the questions surrounding Lidge, the Astros also have very little versatility in their bullpen. The only left handed reliever that will break camp with the Astros is Trevor Miller. If Lidge improves upon his disastrous 2006 season and the combination of Wheeler and Qualls continue to dominate, the relief corps in Houston will remain a powerful asset.

MLB 365: Ranking the bullpens - Part 1

2007-02-22T17:19:00.000-06:00

In today's modern era of baseball, good relief pitching has become not only a hot commodity but an absolute necessity to compete. Often over looked by many casual baseball fans, one aspect all great teams in Major League Baseball boast is a reliable relief corps. Here is a break down and ranking of MLB's best bullpens.

21-30 -

30.

- Hardly anyone of note in the Tampa Bay bullpen. Veteran journey man Dan Miceli is likely to be the featured closer during the rare occasions that a save opportunity exists in Tampa. In 2006, Miceli posted a 3.94 ERA with 4 saves--his highest such save totals in a season since saving 21 games in 1995 with the Pirates. Righties Rudy Lugo, Chad Orvella and Brian Stokes may prove somewhat reliable but the team has a serious need for left handed relievers. For years the Rays have struggled mightily to establish a name in a consistently competitive AL East. Expect their hardships to continue in 2007--and likely for years to come.

29.

- While the Royals are likely to continue upon there losing ways, management is at least making an effort to improve the team. Additions of Brian Bannister and Gil Meche to the starting rotation are noble and the future superstar trio of prospects in Luke Hochevar, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon provide a glimpse of hope. As for the bullpen, GM Dayton Moore added veteran Octavio Dotel to fill in a vacant closer role and former Braves' setup man Ken Ray. Two full years removed from reconstructive elbow surgery, Dotel looks to regain his form that made him successful with the Mets, Astros and A's. David Riske and fellow righty Todd Wellenmeyer should add depth to the Royals bullpen and look for former starter Scott Elarton to fill a long relief need. Although the Royals relievers are a much more solid unit than in recent years, it is still a ways away from being considered a strength.

28.

- The young Colorado Rockies will surprise many this year at the plate--but their relief corps are likely to cost the team any chance at competing for an NL West Division title. Brian Fuentes (30 saves in 36 opportunities with a 3.44 ERA in 65 1/3 innings with an NL 4th lowest .209 opp. BA), is clearly the strength of the Rockies' bullpen. This winter, the Rockies added journeyman La Troy Hawkins as well as former Padres' starter Brian Lawrence--who sat out the entire 2006 season. With only five spots in the rotation, Lawrence, Ubaldo Jimenez, Taylor Buchholz and Jason Hirsh seem likely to serve as relievers or begin the season in AAA. If Lawrence and Hawkins can revive their form, this bullpen unit may be considered a strength rather than a weakness. But pitching in Coors Field, that scenario is highly unlikely.

27.

- Of all of the off-season moves the San Francisco Giants made this winter, addressing the bullpen was apparently not on the agenda. Due to injury, 34 year old Giants' closer Armando Benitez only appeared in 41 games. Despite multiple rumors of a Benitez trade this winter, Armando enters camp as the closer. Steve Kline is the most dependable pitcher in this considerably thin bullpen. Kline has a career ERA of 3.42 while appearing in a minimum of 66 games every season since 1998. Youngster Jonathan Sanchez and veteran journeyman Russ Ortiz will battle for the fifth spot in the rotation while the loser will likely fill a need at long relief. Overall, the Giants starting rotation is strong enough to contend for an NL West title, but the bullpen may cost them the division when it's all said and done.

26.

- The Boston Red Sox have arguably baseball's most powerful lineup but are likely to struggle closing out games for the majority of the season. Breakout closer Jon Papelbon (4-2 record with 35 saves and a 0.92 ERA in 2006,) will begin his sophomore season in the starting rotation, while Boston mainstays Alan Embree and Keith Foulke have moved on. Heading into the season, the role of closer is anyone's guess. At the present time, the favorite to win the job is former Seattle Mariner starter Joel A. Pineiro--hoping to rebound from his horrendous 2006 season (8-13 record with a 6.36 ERA in 165 2/3 innings). Veterans Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez may be the only semi-reliable relievers, while youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny DelCarmen continue to develop. To keep pace with their rivals in New York, the Red Sox improved starting rotation must hold up through out the season and eat up a ton of innings.

25.

- The Diamondbacks are quietly gaining a lot of press as an underdog favorite to compete for the Wild Card in the National League. Over the last year and a half, the D-backs have made several moves to improve their pitching staff. Trading for Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis and Randy Johnson makes the starting rotation very respectable and the mid-season acquisition of Jorge Julio strengthen the bullpen. Incumbent closer Jose Valverde's job is definitely in question. Valverde managed 18 saves in 22 appearances, but posted a ridiculous 5.84 ERA in 49 1/3 innings. Julio and Brandon Lyon will likely succeed Valverde if and when the pitcher falters. 28 year old Juan Cruz has looked sharp at times as a spot-starter and in long relief. Although the rotation is much improved over the beginning of 2006, age is a big factor. Thus the D-backs may rely on their below average bullpen more than they would like to in 2007.

24.

- The Brewers started out the season on a tear last season. Perhaps the standout Brewer during the opening stretch was then closer Derrick Turnbow. From April-June, Turnbow, then 28, earned an All-Star selection going 4-3 with 23 saves in 27 appearances with a 3.29 ERA. From June 6-June 29 (11 appearances), Turnbow didn't allow a single earned run. From the month of July forward, Turnbow was a completely different pitcher. Derrick finished July 0-4 with a staggering 21.32 ERA in 11 appearances and lost his job as closer. In late July, the Brewers traded slugger Carlos Lee for former heralded Rangers' closer Francisco Cordero. With the Brewers (July 28-October 1), Cordero only allowed 5 earned runs while saving 16 games. If Turnbow regains his confidence and form, the Brewers will boast a lethal one-two punch at the back of the bullpen. Aside from Turnbow and Cordero, 31 year old righty Matt Wise has been very effective the last two seasons after missing the entire 2004 season. The Brewers have a very soild rotation--perhaps one of the NL's best--but other than Francisco Cordero, the bullpen will be a liability barring a great turn around from Derrick Turnbow.

23.

- The saving grace of the Mariners bullpen is closer J.J. Putz. After former-closer Eddie Guardado--now with the Reds--struggled mightily early on, Putz stepped in brilliantly. The hard-throwing righty struck out 104 batters in 78 1/3 innings (11.95 K/9 IP ratio) a season ago, adding 36 saves with a 2.30 ERA. To complement Putz, the Mariners have brought along veterans Arthur Rhodes (again) and Chris Reitsma. Both pitchers struggled in 2006, but will be relied on heavily along side a group of inexperienced pitchers in Seattle. As the season progresses, Putz may likely be the only bright spot in this group as the Mariners seem destined to finish last in the AL West for the fourth consecutive season.

22.

- With the departure of Joe Borowski, the Marlins lack a proven veteran presence in their bullpen. Heading into spring training, 24 year old Taylor Tankersley is the favorite to close games for incumbent manager Fredi Gonzalez. In 49 games in 2006, Tankersley was dominant posting a 2.85 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 41 innings. Sergio Mite and Renyel Pinto, two of the three pitchers acquired from the Cubs for Juan Pierre prior to last season, will provide a more integral role in the bullpen in 2007. Aside from Tankersley, Mitre and Pinto, the Marlins will include righties Carlos Martinez, Logan Kensing and Jose Garcia for additional depth. Look for right hander Yusmeiro Petit--Scout.com 22nd overall pitching prospect that came to the Marlins via the Mets along with Mike Jacobs as part of the deal that sent Carlos Delgado to New York--to have a break out year. Like the majority of players that comprise the Marlins team, the bullpen is very young and very inexperienced and may quite possibly surprise many teams in the National League.

21.

- The Texas Rangers bullpen is considerably better than in recent years. After former closer Francisco Cordero struggles cost him a trade to Milwaukee, 34 year old Akinori Otsuka reprised his role to much success. Otsuka posted a 2.11 ERA and saved 32 games in 36 opportunities for a rather mediocre Rangers' club in 2006. This winter, recently hired GM Jon Daniels signed former Cy Young Award winner Eric Gagne to a one year contract. The one-two punch of Otsuka and Gagne--granted Gagne's injury problems are in the past--should be a lethal combination. Look for righty Wes Littleton to continue to build upon an incredible rookie season in which he posted a 1.73 ERA in 33 games in 2006. Due to a considerably weak starting rotation--which seems to be a recurring theme in Arlington the past number of years--the bullpen arms may be relied on heavily through out the season.

MLB 365 Projection: Alex Rodriguez

2007-02-18T11:01:00.000-06:00

2007 - Yankees - .311/.409/.598, 46 HR, 111 runs, 132 RBI, 14 SB

It is uncommon for a major league player that posted an offensive line of .290/.392/.523 with 35 home runs, 113 runs, 121 RBI and 15 stolen bases to be considered an incredible disappointment, but Alex Rodriguez is held to a much higher standard than many. Such was the case for A-Rod during the entire 2006 season. The shortstop-turned-third baseman has received much criticism for his poor performance in post season appearances--a trend which continued in 2006, hitting .071 in the Yankees Divisional Series against the Detroit Tigers--and became the object of obsession for the majority of the regular season. Seemingly to his critics delight, A-Rod collapsed under the pressure in New York all season long. His 35 home runs was his lowest output since the 1997 season with the Seattle Mariners and his 24 errors at third led the American League.

This season however, A-Rod may be playing for a new contract. His original contract with the Rangers in 2000 allows an option-out clause effective after the 2007 season--meaning A-Rod may test the open market following this season similar to fellow [agent] Scott Boras client J.D. Drew did this past winter.

Expect a big season from Rodriguez this year as it becomes increasingly evident that the 31 year old may change scenery in 2008.

Bleed Cubbie Blue.com ranks the Top 100 Cubs of All-Time

2007-02-09T21:44:00.000-06:00

Bleed Cubbie Blue.com has compiled a list of the Top 100 Chicago Cubs greats throughout their 130 year history and ranked Hall of Fame second baseman--and my personal favorite athlete of all time--Ryne Sandberg #4.

The site's creator, Al Yellon, has granted me--TheBeerBaron--the honor of co-detailing his historic career along with him for his site.......

Here is a link to the article at Bleed Cubbie Blue.com

The Nominees for the Worst Signing of the 2006 Off Season are…..

2007-01-25T15:32:00.000-06:00

Gary Matthews Jr. - Angels (5 years/$50 million)

Gary Matthews Jr was greatly rewarded for posting his first season at the Major League level with a batting average above .300 (.313 with the Rangers). After Angels failed to acquire his top two free-agent targets in Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano, GM Bill Stoneman felt a great sense of urgency to improve his team. His answer was Gary Mathews Jr. Sarge Jr. is a lifetime .263/.336/.419 hitter and is regarded as a slightly above average defensive center fielder at best.

Long considered a career "journeyman" outfielder, Matthews Jr. will start the 2007 on his 7th different team in 8 years of experience. Through out his tenure in the Major Leagues, Matthews Jr. has been placed on waivers four seperate occasions since debuting with the Padres in 1999.

At 32 years of age, Matthews' prime production value is fading by the moment but has job security for the first time in his professional career.

Juan Pierre - Dodgers (4 years/$44 million)

Juan Pierre is by no means the worst option for centerfield in the league, but is far from the best. Pierre struggles at the plate the past couple of seasons are a growing concern. Although Pierre raised his average a season ago (.276 in 2005 to a .292 in 2006), his on base percentage (OBP) has become extremely troubling--especially for a lead off hitter. The previous two seasons, Pierre has only managed a combined .328 OBP.

Although his speed production is still high (58 stolen bases in 2006), Pierre is very erratic on the basepath. Juan has 325 career stolen bases, but has been caught 116 times (only 74% accuracy).

At 30 years old, Pierre's speed will likely begin to decline in time and is basically the only strength that he possesses. Juan is an average fielder with a below average arm and offers little to no power as a hitter.

Gil Meche - Royals (5 years/$55 million)

Gil Meche's signing with the Royals may be one of the most peculiar in recent memory. $55 million for a pitcher that has never accumulated 200 innings in a season with a career 4.65 ERA is a very steep price tag. However, in a very weak free agent class, Meche could have signed with a number of other teams that would provide him an opportune chance to win.

At 28 years old, it is hardly impossible for Meche to turn a corner but pitching in baseball's toughest division will be a commanding task. The Royals may have been better off signing Tony Armas Jr. when it is all said and done.

Vincente Padilla - Rangers (3 years/$33.75 million)

Compared to the signing of Gil Meche, Vincente Padilla's contract extension with the Rangers seems relatively reasonable. Early on in his professional career, Padilla actually acheived above average results in the Major Leagues.

In 2002 and 2003 with the Phillies, Padilla posted a PRAR (Pitcher-only runs above replacement) of 65 and 62, respectively. During that time period, Padilla posted a 3.45 ERA with 28 wins in 414 2/3 innings of work with the Phillies. Conversly, Padilla has only managed a 4.57 ERA in 462 1/3 innings with the Rangers since 2003.

Padilla is still only 29 years old as well but pitching in hitter-friendly Ameriquest Field will be a difficult task to overcome.

Jason Marquis - Cubs (3 years/$21 million)

Jason Marquis final season with the Cardinals a year ago was down right horrendous. Out of 31 starting pitchers in the National League, Marquis finished the season ranked statistically 31st. After posting a 6.02 ERA during the regular season, Marquis failed to receive a listing on the Cardinals' playoff roster.

Cubs management approach the acquisition with tremendous optimism and confidence, believing that Marquis will regain his form of 2004--in which he posted a 15-7 record with a 3.71 ERA in 201 1/3 innings. After the disappointing season the pitching staff faced a year ago, the Cubs were in desperate need of starters with a proven track record of consistency. Over the last 3 seasons, Marquis has averaged 201 innings.

Marquis is only 28 years old, but is regarded by many as stubborn and difficult to work with. Only time will tell if this signing will pay off or frustate the Cubs' faithful for an additional three seasons.

MLB 365 Projection: David Wright

2007-01-23T13:34:00.000-06:00

2007 - Mets - .319/.394/.561/.955, 32 HR, 21 SB, 128 RBI, 107 R

Last August, New York Mets’ GM Omar Minaya completed one of his greatest achievements during his tenure-guaranteeing that David Wright would remain with the team through 2012. At age 24, David Wright is already one of the National League’s elite third basemen. Wright possesses a rare power and speed combination that many experts compare to a younger version of Scott Rolen. In only his second full season, Wright hit .311/.381/.531/.912 with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 40 doubles, 181 hits and 116 RBI in 2006.

Wright is considered one of baseball’s hardest working individuals. With time, Wright’s power numbers should increase as he continues to develop. Ever since his debut with the Mets in July of 2004, David has excelled against Major League pitching-hitting .306 through out his first 383 games. Wright is an inherently disciplined hitter-posting a .373 OBP during his time at the Major League level.

Without question, David Wright will be an early favorite to win the NL Most Valuable Player Award this season. Before his time in baseball is over, Wright may win multiple M.V.P. Awards.

MLB 365 Projection: Grady Sizemore

2007-01-22T14:47:00.000-06:00

2007 - Indians - .311/.402/.533/.935, 28 HR, 48 2B, 30 SB, 84 RBI, 131 R

At 24 years old, Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore has already developed into one of baseball's most complete position players. In only his second full season with Cleveland, Sizemore led the AL in runs (134) and doubles (53)--trailing only David Ortiz of the Red Sox for the AL lead in runs created (Ortiz created 152 runs in 2006 while Sizemore created 140). In recognition of his outstanding 2006 season, Grady Sizemore finished 10th in the AL Most Valuable Player voting--despite Cleveland's 78-84 finish in the AL Central--receiving 24 votes.

Although he is one of the AL's most productive hitters, his strike out totals are still incredibly high--which is very common of many hitters making the transition from AAA to MLB. Through his first two plus seasons (1,433 at bats), Sizemore has fallen victim to the strike out 319 times--averaging a strike out every 4.49 at bats. His relatively high strike out totals were balanced out due to a very good on base (OBP) and on base plus slugging (OPS) percentage. In 2006, Grady posted a .375 OBP with an OPS of .908. Once Sizemore fully adjusts to Major League pitching, his strike out totals should drastically decrease.

Grady has very good speed (22 stolen bases in both 2005 and 2006) and great contact at the plate (190 hits in 2006), with above average power (28 HR in 2006) and great range as a defensive center fielder.

Grady Sizemore is without question one of baseball's most exciting young players and will continue to spark the Cleveland Indians offensively and defensively for years to come (Grady is signed with Cleveland through 2011 with an $8.5 million option for 2012).

Consider the young lefty a strong candidate for the AL MVP not only in 2007, but for many years to follow.

A look at the Chicago White Sox farm system.

2007-01-19T13:38:00.000-06:00

From an article last week on Baseball Prospectus by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Chicago White Sox Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

None

Very Good Prospects:

1. John Danks, lhp
2. Ryan Sweeney, cf/rf
3. Josh Fields, 3b

Good Prospects:

4. Gio Gonzalez, lhp
5. Charlie Haeger, rhp

Average Prospects:

6. Aaron Cunningham, lf
7. Lance Broadway, rhp
8. Kyle McCulloch, rhp
9. Chris Carter, 1b
10. Nick Massett, rhp

1. John Danks, lhp
DOB: 4/15/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, Texas HS

What he did in 2006: 4.15 ERA at AA (69.1-74-22-82); 4.33 at AAA (70.2-67-34-72)

The Good: Young lefthander found success at Triple-A thanks to effective three-pitch mix. Curveball is best offering, but fastball also has plus velocity for a southpaw, sitting at 90-92 mph. Changeup is more than just usable, and projects as a third plus pitch.

The Bad: Danks has an annoying habit of getting hit hard initially after each promotion and needing to adjust each time. His fastball can be a little too true and he has a tendency to work high in the zone, which has led to an elevated home run rate.

The Irrelevant: ERA in first seven Pacific Coast League starts: 5.97. ERA in last seven: 2.75.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An above-average big league starter.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. By trading Brandon McCarthy, White Sox GM Kenny Williams gained a new No. 1 prospect, but left a hole at the bottom of the rotation that Danks is not ready to step into, according to most. Still, the White Sox feel he'll provide much greater long-term value.

2. Ryan Sweeney, cf/rf
DOB: 2/20/85
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 2nd round, 2003, Iowa HS

What he did in 2006: .296/.350/.452 at AAA (492 PA); .229/.229/.229 at MLB (35 PA)

The Good: Scouts love the size, the picture-perfect swing, the power potential and the plus outfield arm. Has yet to have a breakout campaign but has held is own despite consistently being a year ahead of most high school picks from his class. Just enough range, thanks to good instincts, to play all three outfield positions.

The Bad: Has completed a year of Triple-A, yet we still need the word 'potential' when talking about his power, which will likely top out at about 20 home runs annually, at most. Overly aggressive at the plate, with tremendous plate coverage almost working against him at times. Can hold his own in center, but not in the long-term.

The Irrelevant: Sweeney hit .337/.382/.558 when leading off an inning.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A starting big league outfielder--chances for above-average production are good, chances for star-level production are not.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. Both the White Sox and manager Ozzie Guillen are enamored with Sweeney, despite a big league debut that including zero walks and zero extra-base hits in 35 at-bats. Brian Anderson is on the market to make room for him.

3. Josh Fields, 3b
DOB: 12/14/82
Height/Weight: 6-2/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2004, Oklahoma State University

What he did in 2006: .305/.379/.515 at AAA (526 PA); .150/.320/.400 at MLB (25 PA)

The Good: Former football star continued transition to the diamond with breakout season at Triple-A. Surprisingly well-rounded set of tools including plus power, above-average speed and excellent arm at the hot corner.

The Bad: Past the arm, Fields is a sloppy defender, but it's more an issue of fundamentals, and nobody thinks he needs to move. Power-only swing is a bit long, and his strikeout rate will likely always be high.

The Irrelevant: Fields holds the Oklahoma State career record with 55 touchdown passes and set a Cotton Bowl record with 307 yards passing.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A lot like Joe Crede, but without the glove.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. Fields is blocked for two more years by Crede, but that doesn't mean he's not going to play in the majors. With Kenny Williams, a trade is always possible, as is a switch to the outfield if he returns to Triple-A.

MLB 365 Projection: Mark Teixeira

2007-01-18T17:21:00.000-06:00

2007 – Rangers – .302/.386/.585/.971, 41 HR, 129 RBI, 44 2B, 108 R

In 2005, Mark Teixeira posted some of the greatest power numbers in modern day history. Teixeira hit .301/.379/.575 (.954 OPS) in 2005 with 43 home runs, 41 doubles, 112 runs and an AL best 144 RBI. Prior to the All-Star break last season, Teixeira’s numbers failed to impress. Through out the first 88 games (353 at bats), Mark was hitting a modest .275/.353/.445 with only 9 home runs. Although his home run total was down, Teixeira hit 31 doubles before the break. After the break however, Teixeira posted incredible power numbers. For his final 74 games (275 at bats), Mark managed a line of .291/.394/.604 (.998 OPS) with an astounding 24 home runs (11.46 at bats per home run) and 61 RBI-finishing the year with a respectable .282/.371/.514 (.885 OPS).

Last season, Teixeira also struggled at home. Ameriquest Field in Arlington, Texas is widely considered one of baseball’s most hitter friendly environments. In 2005, Teixeira only managed a .266/.336/.455 (.791 OPS) at home with only 12 home runs in 2005-compared to .298/.406/.577 (.983 OPS) and 21 home runs on the road.

Mark is also one of the AL’s top defensive first basemen and is coming off of back to back Gold Glove seasons.

With all of the departures this offseason in Texas, the Rangers will definitely expect Mark Teixeira to serve as their primary run producer. Teixeira will benefit from the expertise of longtime Rangers’ hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo this spring. Jaramillo recently signed a contract extension and declined the opportunity to interview for the head management vacancy. If he remains consistent through out the season and improves his numbers at home, Teixeira is a definite candidate to win the AL MVP.

MLB 365 Projection: Scott Kazmir

2007-01-18T11:30:00.000-06:00

2007 – Devil Rays – 18-9 (33 starts) – 2.91 ERA, 218 IP, 239 K’s, 1.22 WHIP

Even though Scott Kazmir missed nearly the entire second half of the 2006 season with a shoulder injury, he proved to be one of the AL’s most effective starters. In 24 starts last season, Kazmir posted a 10-8 record with a 3.24 ERA and is 20-17 with a 3.51 ERA (56 starts) and a mere .76 home runs allowed per 9 innings ratio (HR/9) through out his first two full seasons in Tampa.

Kazmir incorporates a slider, changeup and a curveball to complement his mid-90’s fastball. Scott Kazmir has become one of baseball’s elite strikeout pitchers since his debut. In 2006, Scott’s 10.14 strikeouts per 9 innings ratio (K/9 IP) topped Johan Santana’s rate of 9.44.

As Scott Kazmir continues to develop, he may become one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball. His shoulder appears to be completely healed and should report to Spring Training on schedule.

Despite pitching for the lowly Devil Rays, look for Kazmir to contend for the Cy Young Award in the AL.

A look at the Cleveland Indians farm system.

2007-01-17T16:56:00.000-06:00

From yesterday's article on Baseball Prospectus by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Cleveland Indians Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

1. Adam Miller, rhp

Very Good Prospects:

2. Chuck Lofgren, lhp
3. Trevor Crowe, cf

Good Prospects:

4. John Drennen, cf
5. Brian Barton, cf
6. Tony Sipp, lhp

Average Prospects:

7. Wes Hodges, 3b
8. Brad Snyder, rf
9. Rafael Perez, lhp
10. Scott Lewis, lhp

1. Adam Miller, rhp
DOB: 11/26/84
Height/Weight: 6-4/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, Texas HS

What he did in 2006: 2.75 ERA at AA (153.2-129-43-157); 5.79 ERA at AAA (4.2-4-3-4)

The Good: Miller's rebound from 2005 arm troubles started slow, but by the end of the year he had firmly re-established himself among the top righty prospects in the game. Loss of arm strength forced him to focus on control and secondary pitches, and when his fastball returned he was a much more well-rounded pitcher with a low-to-mid 90s sinking fastball, hard slider, and changeup that gives him a full three-pitch arsenal.

The Bad: While Miller flashed a plus slider and changeup at times during the 2006 season, they weren't there every time out. He can get into a habit of overthrowing the slider, causing it to lose second-plane break, and he would often lose feel on the changeup.

The Irrelevant: As good as his Double-A numbers are, it actually took him a little while to get going. In his last 10 starts for Akron, Miller went 8-1, 0.97 with 70 strikeouts in 64.2 innings while allowing just 45 hits and 17 walks.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: All the stuff is there for Miller to be an ace if he can find greater consistency.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Miller will begin the year at Triple-A, but the Indians expect him to force a big league decision as early as the All-Star break.

2. Chuck Lofgren, lhp
DOB: 1/29/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 4th round, 2004, California HS

What he did in 2006: 2.32 ERA at High A (139.2-108-54-125)

The Good: Power lefthander showed three plus offerings in 2006 with 91-95 mph fastball, hard-breaking curve and deceptive change up. All pitches graded up on basis of excellent command.

The Bad: Lofgren needs to work more in the lower half of the strike zone, as his fly ball tendencies could hurt him at more advanced levels. While strongly built, there are some stamina concerns, as Lofgren would often lose a tick or two on his fastball after the first time through the lineup.

The Irrelevant: Lofgren was nine strikeouts and four innings by teammate Scott Lewis short of the Carolina League pitching Triple Crown. Unlike the major leagues, the minor league inning minimum for rate stats is 0.8 innings per game, as opposed to an even one per contest. So Lewis and his 115.2 innings just barely qualified.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An above-average middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. After a breakout 2006 campaign, things don't get any easier for Lofgren as he faces the big jump to Double-A.

3. Trevor Crowe, cf
DOB: 11/17/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, University of Arizona

What he did in 2006: .000/.000/.000 at Low A (5 PA); .329/.449/.470 at High A (273 PA); .234/.318/.325 at AA (176 PA)

The Good: Quintessential leadoff man has every skill it takes to bat at the top of the order, including compact line-drive stroke and good contact skills, a patient approach, and fantastic base running skills. Understands his role and plays within himself to go along with top-of-the-line makeup and fundamentals.

The Bad: Crowe has limited range in centerfield, leaving most scouts to project a move to left. His power is limited, and while his skill set fits well for the 1980s version of the position, it doesn't profile will as the modern corner outfielder.

The Irrelevant: Trevor's father David was once a professional golfer, and Trevor himself was nationally ranked as a teenager in racquetball.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A leadoff man capable of scoring 100+ runs annually.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – An ill-conceived and short-lived move to second base, as well as a strained oblique limited Crowe during his first exposure to Double-A pitching, but he'll get a chance for redemption there in 2007. With Grady Sizemore providing MVP-level production in center, a pure leadoff man in left is the kind of non-standard decision the Indians can afford to make.

A look at the Boston Red Sox farm system.

2007-01-16T12:17:00.000-06:00

From an article posted last week on Baseball Prospectus by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Boston Red Sox Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

1. Clay Buchholz, rhp

Very Good Prospects:

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf
3. Michael Bowden, rhp

Good Prospects:

4. Jason Place, cf
5. Daniel Bard, rhp
6. Bryce Cox, rhp

Average Prospects:

7. Dustin Pedroia, 2b
8. Craig Hansen, rhp
9. Kris Johnson, lhp
10. Justin Masterson, rhp

1. Clay Buchholz, rhp
DOB: 8/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Angelina (Texas) JUCO

What he did in 2006: 2.62 ERA at Low A (103-78-29-117); 1.13 ERA at High A (16-11-4-23)

The Good: Every part of game took a step forward in 2006. Fastball bumped up from low-to-mid 90s, curveball moved into plus status, changeup remained outstanding as ever and control got better. Added all up, this is a tremendous leap.

The Bad: The biggest concern is just of a regression. By the end of 2006, he had no major issues – throwing three-plus pitches for strikes with clean mechanics. He's yet to really be tested, and some would like to see him put a few pounds on to help his stamina.

The Irrelevant: While Buchholz set new single-season records for ERA (1.05) and strikeouts (129) during his one year at Angelina, he has a long way to go to become the most famous alumni. That honor goes to Mark Calaway, better known as professional wrestling's "The Undertaker."

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An early-rotation starter.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average – During trade talks in the offseason, most teams were asking about Buchholz over anyone else, and he seems to be unavailable on any level. The Red Sox might skip him to Double-A to avoid the California League.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, cf
DOB: 9/11/83
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: L/LDrafted: 1st round, 2005, Oregon State

What he did in 2006: .299/.379/.418 at Low A (281 PA); .308/.387/.434 at AA (225 PA)

The Good: Prototypical leadoff hitter/centerfielder. Excellent bat speed and good pitch recognition allows him to lace line drives all over the field. He's a 70 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale), and knows how to use it – excellent base stealer and outstanding range in the outfield.

The Bad: Power ceiling is limited. Hit for a good average and draws a good numbers of walks, but neither skill is overwhelming enough to project as a real impact player, as opposed to simply good. Below-average arm.

The Irrelevant: While this has probably changed since he received his $1.4 million signing bonus, Ellsbury listed his favorite restaurant on his college media guide bio as The Olive Garden. Live it up a little, Jacoby.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: An every day leadoff man/centerfielder. Wait, I already said that.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Ellsbury is moving quickly, as there is a need for a player like him in Boston. Depending on roster shenanigans, he'll start the year at Double- or Triple-A and should be up before the season is out.

3. Michael Bowden, rhp
DOB: 9/9/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Illinois HS
What he did in 2006: 3.51 ERA at Low A (107.2-91-31-118); 9.00 ERA at High A (5-9-1-3)

The Good: Nice combination of size and skill. 89-92 mph fastball is brought up a grade for Bowden's ability to command the pitch, and his curveball gives him a second plus offering. Big-bodied and maintains his stuff well into the later innings.

The Bad: Like many young arms, Bowden never needed a changeup in high school and is still trying to get a feel for the pitch. Scouts don't like his multi-stage delivery and would like to see smoother mechanics. Has tendency to gear up in pressure situations and overthrow.

The Irrelevant: Work on the warm-up: Opposing hitters batted .303 against Bowden in the first inning, but .211 thereafter.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-rotation innings eater.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – Bowden is two years younger than Buchholz and not as polished a product, so the Red Sox will take it a little slower with him. He'll begin the year at High Class A.

MLB 365 Projection: Daisuke Matsuzaka

2007-01-16T11:23:00.000-06:00

2007 – Red Sox – 15-9 (33 starts) – 3.31 ERA, 201 IP, 158 K’s, 1.14 WHIP

For the $51.1 million that invested in order to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Boston Red Sox will count on the Japanese superstar to impact their starting rotation immediately. Daisuke (pronounced “Dice-kay”) will more than likely astound opposing hitters in the AL initially, but may catch up to him as the season progresses-especially with the powerful lineups within the AL East.

Daisuke is a 6’ 0” right hander with a vast repertoire of pitches to choose from. His best pitch-a two-seem fastball-tops out at around 96 MPH. To compliment his fastball, Daisuke involves a cutter, splitter, slider, changeup and the infamous shuuto* to his powerful arsenal.

Expecting Matsuzaka to duplicate his 2006 season with the Seibu Lions (17-5 with a 2.13 ERA, 200 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings pitched with 13 complete games) may be a bit unreasonable for his inaugural campaign in Major League Baseball-but not entirely out of the question.

* - According to Wikipedia.org, The shuuto (Japanese シュート) or shootball is a pitch commonly thrown by Japanese pitchers that breaks slightly down and in on right-handed batters when thrown by a right-handed pitcher, somewhat similar to a screwball, although with less break. The shuuto begins as a fastball, taking a straight path toward the plate. However, the pitcher has put a slight spin on the ball, such that as the ball's velocity decreases, it "rolls over" and drifts back toward the batter.

MLB 365 Projection: Jake Peavy

2007-01-15T16:23:00.000-06:00

2007 - Padres - 16-9 (33 starts) - 2.96 ERA, 210 IP, 227 k’s, 1.15 WHIP

After posting an impressive 28-13 record with a 2.56 ERA from 2004-2005, Jake Peavy regressed slightly in his latest campaign with the San Diego Padres. Although he compiled 202 1/3 innings of work with 215 strikeouts, Peavy finished the season 11-14 (in 32 starts) with a 4.08 ERA. Peavy battled arm problems for the majority of the season but is expected to report to Spring Training in February without any problems.

Regardless of Peavy’s setbacks in 2006, he remains one of Major League Baseball’s top strikeout pitchers. Jake’s two and four seem fastballs--both peak at around 96 MPH--are his most effective pitches and his slider is a great compliment.

Without a question, the San Diego Padres will rely heavily on the arm of Jake Peavy and will expect him to rebound as the staff ace that many projected him to be for years to come.

Look for Peavy to once again finish as one of the NL leaders in both strikeouts and ERA in 2007.

MLB 365 Projection: Cole Hamels

2007-01-15T12:53:00.000-06:00

2007 - Phillies - 14-6 (28 starts) - 3.44 ERA, 168 IP, 184 K's, 1.19 WHIP

Without question, Cole Hamels is one of baseball’s elite young talents. Although his first season at the Major League level was shortened due to injury, the 23 year old lefty established himself as one of the NL East’s best strikeout pitchers. In 2006, Cole posted a 9-8 record (23 starts) with a 4.08 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 132 1/3 innings of work.

Hamels’ repertoire of pitches begins with a very good 92-94 MPH fastball—with great movement. To complement his fastball, Hamels utilizes an above average curve and change. Cole's strength as a pitcher revolve around his mechanics. He has a near flawless motion that is very consistent.

Since high school, injuries have continued to hamper Hamels’ development and will remain a concern through out his career. .

For the Phillies to excel in an increasingly competitive NL East, Hamels must avoid the disabled list at all cost.

MLB 365 Projection: Alfonso Soriano

2007-01-11T12:31:00.000-06:00

2007 - Cubs - .273/.345/.548/.893, 39 HR, 88 RBI, 40 2B, 36 SB, 105 R

Cubs GM Jim Hendry shocked the entire baseball world by landing the market’s most coveted free-agent this offseason in Alfonso Soriano. With the extraordinary power numbers that Soriano posted with the Nationals a season ago in cavernous R.F.K. Stadium, Soriano should excel in the hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. Although Soriano became the first player in MLB history with 40 home runs, 40 stolen bases and 40 doubles, his V.O.R.P. (Value Over Replacement Player) as a leadoff hitter is minimal at best. Soriano’s .351 on base percentage (OBP) of 2006 was a career high, much better than his career OBP of .325. According to Hendry, Soriano is the incumbent leadoff hitter for the Cubs in 2007. For Soriano to achieve success as a leadoff hitter in Chicago, he must maintain his patience at the plate.

Although Soriano has only hit above .300 in a season once, his power and speed make up for his lower batting average—but Soriano would likely benefit from moving down in the order—to perhaps the third or fifth hole.

Again, Soriano should maintain his average power and stolen base numbers in 2007—especially in a weaker NL Central and at Wrigley—but he may not post 40/40/40 seasons 8 years from now when he enters the final season of his contract with the Cubs.

A look at the Baltimore Orioles farm system.

2007-01-11T12:24:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Prospectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Baltimore Orioles Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

1. Brandon Erbe, rhp
2. Bill Rowell, 3b

Very Good Prospects:

3. Pedro Beato, rhp

Good Prospects:

4. Garrett Olson, lhp

Average Prospects:

5. Radhames Liz, rhp
6. James Hoey, rhp
7. Nolan Reimold, rf
8. Kieron Pope, lf
9. Jeff Fiorentino, of
10. Pedro Florimon, ss

1. Brandon Erbe, rhp
DOB: 12/25/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 3rd round, 2005, Baltimore HS

What he did in 2006: 3.22 ERA at Low A (114.2-88-47-133)

The Good: Prototypical power pitcher dominated in full-season debut thanks primarily to a 92-95 mph tailing fastball; Erbe touches 96-98 several occasions every time out. His projectable body has scouts putting him in the mid-to-upper 90s once his body matures. Slider has potential to be a plus pitch, and shows some feel for a change. Intelligence and maturity beyond his years.

The Bad: Slider is inconsistent, as Erbe has a tendency to overthrow it, turning it into a pitch that sweeps across the plate on a single plane. Changeup is still very much a work in progress and not a usable third pitch yet. Many scouts have expressed concerns about his mechanics, specifically how he throws across his body.

The Irrelevant: Erbe attended the exclusive McDonugh School in suburban Baltimore, the same school that produced short-lived and controversial U.N. Ambassador John Bolton.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A guy who racks up 200+ strikeouts annually, with dominating closer as a long-term backup plan.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – A year younger than most high school seniors when drafted, Erbe will pitch in the High Class A Carolina League at 19. The Orioles have no reason to rush him and will continue to be cautious with his workload.

2. Bill Rowell, 3b
DOB: 9/10/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/215
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, New Jersey HS

What he did in 2006: .329/.422/.507 at Rookie level (180 PA); .326/.388/.488 at Short Season (49 PA)

The Good: First high school hitter selected in '06 draft didn't disappoint in pro debut, showing a good approach and plus power, with just three home runs in 195 at-bats mitigated by 19 doubles. Massive physical presence who uses his lower half to generate tremendous leverage in his swing. Excellent hand/eye coordination should allow him to hit for average as well.

The Bad: Already huge and still getting bigger. Rowell was moved from shortstop to third base after signing, but was awful there and will likely need to slide over to first base sooner than later. Power-conscious approach leads to lofty strikeout totals, but the team thinks that just comes with the territory for a hitter like Rowell.

The Irrelevant: In his first five professional plate appearances with the bases loaded, Rowell has a walk, two singles, a pair of doubles and eight RBI.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A giant slugger. Richie Sexson?

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Very high – Rowell will make his full-season debut in 2007 with some lofty expectations.

Read more at Baseball Prospectus.com

MLB 365 Projection: Barry Zito

2007-01-10T10:42:00.000-06:00

2007 - Giants - 15-11 (35 starts) – 3.89 ERA, 227 IP, 169 K’s, 1.22 WHIP

Although it seems as though a lifetime has passed since Barry Zito’s magnificent 2002 season in which he posted 23 wins and a 2.75 ERA—earning the AL Cy Young Award-- he remains one of baseball’s most reliable starters. Over the past 6 seasons, Zito has averaged 223 innings per season-the best in all of baseball. As a member of the San Francisco Giants, Zito will be relied on heavily. The veteran lefty will also counted on as a tutor, assisting in the development of a very young pitching core—namely starters Noah Lowry and Matt Cain.

Many pitchers as of late have achieved immediate success after switching from the AL to the NL (such as last seasons breakout performances of San Diego’s Chris Young and Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo,) and Barry Zito is definitely a candidate to continue this recent trend.

A look at the Washington Nationals farm system.

2007-01-09T08:36:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Prospectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Washington Nationals Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

None

Very Good Prospects:

1. Chris Marrero, lf

Good Prospects:

2. Collin Balester, rhp
3. Kory Casto, lf
4. Jesus Flores, c

Average Prospects:

5. Colton Willems, rhp
6. Shairon Martis, rhp
7. Esmailyn Gonzalez, ss
8. Zech Zinicola, rhp
9. Matt Chico, lhp
10. Stephen King, ss

1. Chris Marrero, lf
DOB: 7/2/88
Height/Weight: 6-3/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, Florida HS

What he did in 2006: .309/.374/.420 at Rookie level (91 PA)

The Good: Considered the best high school bat in the draft entering the season, Marrero had a bit of a case of draft-itis during the spring that dropped him into the middle of the first round. Plus-plus raw power thanks to excellent bat speed, with power coming from much-desired natural loft as opposed to any sort of pronounced uppercut. Plus arm and excellent makeup.

The Bad: A third baseman in high school, Marrero was immediately moved to left field, where he remains raw, but has the athleticism to become decent. Average runner at best now, and will lose a step or two as body matures. Like most power hitters, he's prone to strikeouts, and needs to improve his approach against pro lefties.

The Irrelevant: Marrero's partner on the left side of the infield at Monsignor Pace was Adrian Cardenas, who was a first round pick by the Phillies who made their Top 10.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A left fielder who hits third, fourth or fifth.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Very high. Like any high school draftee with less than 100 pro plate appearances, there is much work to be done. Marrero will begin the year at Low Class A.

2. Collin Balester, rhp

DOB: 6/6/86
Height/Weight: 6-5/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 4th round, 2004, California HS

What he did in 2006: 5.20 ERA at High A (117.2-126-53-87); 1.83 ERA at AA (19.2-15-6-10)

The Good: Despite pitching well at Double-A in late-season look, the tall, skinny righty still offers plenty of projection and is just 20 years old. 90-94 mph fastball has good movement and hard curveball can be a plus pitch at times.

The Bad: Balester is still in need of a third pitch, and while his change-up has nice arm action, it will only improve if he throws it more, which he's reluctant to do in game situations. The organization blames his early struggles on mechanical issues, which they claim have been straightened out.

The Irrelevant: Balester walked just nine of 144 leadoff batters in 2006 (6.3%), but 50 of 383 (13.1%) in all other situations.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Average. Balester will return to Double-A in 2007 and still be young for the level. Washington thinks he's very close to taking off.

3. Kory Casto, lf
DOB: 12/8/81
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 3rd round, 2003, University of Portland

What he did in 2006: .272/.379/.468 at AA (590 PA)

The Good: Professional hitter who can help win games in many ways. Solid hitting skills, power and patience add up to nice all-around talent. Moved back to left field this year in deference to Ryan Zimmerman, and looked good there, as it was his position in college.

The Bad: A late-season slump brought Casto's overall numbers down, as he suffered from some fatigue. Lacks any sort of plus-plus tool. Not enough arm for right field, and a below average runner.

The Irrelevant: During a very brief Arizona Fall League stint, Casto had a bizarre .125/.417/.125 line against lefties by going 2-for-16 with eight walks.

In a Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-pack starting left fielder.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Casto will go into spring training as the favorite to win the left field battle over Ryan Church. A platoon situation with the two is not in the cards, as they both have their problems with southpaws.

MLB 365 Projection: Rich Harden

2007-01-08T14:06:00.000-06:00

2007 - Athletics - 14-6 (27 starts), 3.42 ERA, 171 IP, 184 K’s, 1.17 WHIP.

This year will be the biggest test of Harden’s career as a professional. With the departure of Barry Zito, the A’s will rely heavily on Harden and Dan Haren. It is hardly a secret that Harden, 25, is incredibly talented and loaded with potential--but his health is a persistent concern. Harden has been placed on the disabled list multiple times the past two seasons and is quietly generating comparisons to the Chicago Cubs’ perennially injured duo of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Harden's oblique muscle--which has caused him to miss the most time--is said to be fully healed and shouldn't keep him from reporting to Spring Training.

When healthy, Rich Harden consistantly reaches the middle-upper 90's with his fastball and his splitter is one of the most devestating pitches of it's kind in today's game.

Hopefully, for his sake--and for the sake of the A’s and new manager Bob Geren--this year Harden will remain on the active roster through out the course of the entire season.

If completely healthy, look for Harden to be a leading candidate for AL Comeback Player of the Year and a darkhorse for the AL Cy Young Award.

Back from the Holidays

2007-01-08T14:01:00.000-06:00

After nearly a 3 week vacation, MLB 365 is back and will resume regular updates and commentary.

Thanks and Happy New Year,

TheBeerBaron

A look at the New York Mets farm system.

2006-12-19T16:51:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Prospectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: New York Mets Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

1. Fernando Martinez, cf
2. Philip Humber, rhp
3. Mike Pelfrey, rhp

Very Good Prospects:

4. Carlos Gomez, of

Good Prospects:

5. Alay Soler, rhp

Average Prospects:

6. Jon Niese, lhp
7. Kevin Mulvey, rhp
8. Mike Carp, 1b
9. Deolis Guerra, rhp
10. Joe Smith, rhp

1. Fernando Martinez, cf
DOB: 10/10/88
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: L/R
Signed: Dominican Republic, 2005

What he did in 2006: .333/.389/.505 at Low A (211 PA); .250/.250/.250 at Rookie Level (4 PA); .193/.254/.387 at High A (130 PA)

The Good: After receiving the largest bonus in the 2005 international signing season ($1.4 million), Martinez looked to be worth every penny. Both his hitting skills and approach are remarkable for his age, and power should come as he learns how to pull balls. Every tool grades out as average or plus, and he's a sound center fielder with a plus arm.

The Bad: Power is still mostly projection, and some scouts see a swing that is not designed for loft. Struggles against good lefties. Concerns exist about his ability to maintain speed as body fills out, leaving some to project a move to a corner slot.

The Irrelevant: After going homerless against lefthanders in the Sally League, Martinez bashed three in 49 at-bats against southpaws after a late-season promotion to the Florida State League.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: It's hard to figure out where Martinez will bat in the lineup when he's done, but most agree it was be as an impact hitter in the one, two or three slot. It's interesting to note that when the updated PECOTA cards come out, his comps will include Jose Reyes and Miguel Cabrera, so the system doesn't know what he'll end up as either, other than really, really good.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – but remarkably low for a player so young. Even the Mets were surprised as to how quickly Martinez's tools translated on the field.

2. Philip Humber, rhp
DOB: 12/21/82
Height/Weight: 6-4/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2004, Rice

What he did in 2006: 6.75 ERA at Rookie Level (4-7-1-7); 2.37 ERA at High A (38-24-9-36); 2.88 ERA at AA (34.1-25-10-36); 0.00 ERA at MLB (2-0-1-2)

The Good: Return from Tommy John surgery was not only quick, it was remarkable for how quickly the stuff came back. Throws strikes and works all four quadrants of the zone with a low 90s fastball and a hammer curveball, as well as a power change up. All three pitches are capable of generating swings and misses, and Mets brass are still buzzing about the inning of relief against Atlanta during his big league debut when he touched 96 and looked dominant.

The Bad: Control is there, but like many TJ survivors, the command can falter at times. The surgery will be an issue until he pitches a full season.

The Irrelevant: Former big leaguer Robert Ellis, who has had the surgery himself, assisted Humber with his rehab and has earned praise for an unorthodox approach that involves drills in which the pitcher throws underhanded.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 2 starter capable of winning 15-to-18 games annually with an upper-echelon team.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – There's no need to rush Humber, as the Mets rotation is filled, and for now 2005 first-round pick Mike Pelfrey is a little ahead of him in the pecking order. He'll begin 2007 at Triple-A, but will certainly return to the majors at some point.

3. Mike Pelfrey, rhp
DOB: 1/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-7/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Wichita State

What he did in 2006: 1.64 ERA at High A (22-17-2-26); 2.71 ERA at AA (66.1-60-26-77); 2.25 ERA at AAA (8-4-5-6); 5.48 ERA at MLB (21.1-25-12-13)

The Good: Outstanding fastball features plus-plus velocity (92-95 mph, touches 97) and plus-plus movement, as he's capable of adding major cutting or sinking action on it. Height, and therefore downward plane, only adds to Pelfrey's effectiveness. Repeats delivery well and has very good command for such a large pitcher.

The Bad: Breaking ball pulled a bit of a disappearing act in 2006. He had a decent over-the-top curveball in college, but he just never found his feel for it this year, forcing him to pitch primarily off his fastball, which worked in the minors, but hindered his effectiveness during a brief big league look. Changeup is usable, but like the curve, he loses confidence in it, reducing himself to a one-pitch pitcher.

The Irrelevant: As great as the Mets pitching staffs of the 1980s were, Pelfrey became the first Metropolitan to win his first two starts since 1969 (Gary Gentry).

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A frontline starter.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Higher than it should be. Pelfrey's Arizona Fall League season was cut short by some minor arm soreness, and the organization would like to see if he can find some consistency with his secondary pitches at Triple-A. If they sign Barry Zito, assigning him there to begin the season becomes that much easier.

Read more about it here

A look at the Philadelphia Phillies farm system.

2006-12-16T00:17:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Prospectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Philadelphia Phillies Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

None

Very Good Prospects:

1. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
2. Kyle Drabek, rhp

Good Prospects

3. Michael Bourn, of
4. Josh Outman, lhp
5. J.A. Happ, lhp

Average Prospects

6. Matt Maloney, lhp
7. Adrian Cardenas, ss
8. D'Arby Myers, cf
9. Scott Mathieson, rhp
10. Greg Golson, cf

1. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
DOB: 3/21/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Signed: Venezuela, 2003

What He Did in 2006: 2.26 ERA at Low A (159.1-103-65-159)

The Good: Long, skinny Venezuelan cruised through the South Atlantic League in his second try, limiting batters to a .182 average. He throws an 89-94 mph fastball with good movement and backs it up with a changeup that is the best in the system now that Cole Hamels has graduated to the big leagues. Curveball made great strides in 2006, improving from a show-me pitch to a usable offering.

The Bad: Carrasco's control of his secondary pitches comes and goes. Scouts love the projection, and he'll need to fill it as he moves up because he is not a pure power pitcher yet, but approaches the game like one.

The Irrelevant: Batters facing Carrasco with the bases loaded in 2006 went 1-for-19.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 2 starter.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High – Carrasco's season was officially a breakout by any measurement, and there's room for more improvements in him. He should find some immediate success in the Florida State League, and could hit Double-A by mid-season.

2. Kyle Drabek, rhp
DOB: 12/8/87
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, Texas HS

What He Did in 2006: 7.71 ERA at Rookie Level (23.1-33-11-14)

The Good: Generally considered the top high school righthander in this year's draft, thanks to a mid-90s fastball and a curve that rates right now as a 60-70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Changeup is already a decent offering and should become plus. Excellent athlete who fields his position well, and can hit a little too.

The Bad: Makeup issues abound with teams concerned about his behavior both on and off the field prior to the draft. Drabek's pro debut was as unpredictable as his behavior, with excellent starts being followed by awful ones, and vice-versa.

The Irrelevant: Drabek is the son of former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, who won 155 games during a 13-year career.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A frontline starter.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Very high – Drabek was considered by some to be the top high school player in the draft, but all of the external issues dropped him to the 18th overall selection. This will either be the steal of the draft or a total bust – it's hard to see a lot of scenarios that are in between.

3. Michael Bourn, cf
DOB: 12/27/82
Height/Weight: 5-11/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 4th round, 2003, University of Houston

What He Did in 2006: .274/.350/.365 at AA (361 PA); .283/.368/.428 (174 PA); .125/.222/.125 at MLB (11 PA)

The Good: Prototypical centerfielder/leadoff man who one scout refers to as "Kenny Lofton lite" and has no glaring weaknesses for the type of player he is. Solid hitter who uses the gaps well, as evidenced by nearly 14 triples per 600 at-bats in the minors. Draws walks at a decent clip and has a career stolen base success rate of 85%. Outstanding centerfielder with an arm that as at least average, if not a tick above.

The Bad: Tendency to lose focus on what he does well, leading to high strikeout rates when he tries to drive balls instead of simply making contact. Will likely never put up double-digit home run seasons. Good at many things, great at few.

The Irrelevant: While Bourn hit just five home runs in 2006, two of them were grand slams.In A Perfect World, He Becomes: An everyday centerfielder at the top of the lineup.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Bourn will likely begin the year at Triple-A, pending any moves the busy Phillies still make before spring training. He might break in as a bench outfielder and work his way up from there.

MLB 365 Focus - Rich Hill

2006-12-15T08:35:00.000-06:00

Despite the horrific season Cubs' fans begrudgingly endured, last season provided at least one positive aspect to remain optimistic about concerning the team's immediate future in left-handed starter Rich Hill.

Rich Hill was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds initially in 1999--in the 36th round (1,088 overall) after his senior year of high school in Boston. Rather that sign prematurely with the Reds, Hill opted to pitch for the University of Michigan.

For his rookie season in Ann Arbor, Hill posted a less-than-stellar 1-4 record with a 9.23 ERA--but showcased his immense, raw potential by striking out 53 batters in 40 innings pitched. Prior to his sophomore season at U of M, Hill was drafted--yet again--by the Anaheim Angels in the 7th round (209th overall) of the June Amateur Draft--but opted to pitch one more season in college to bolster his draft status.

During his final two seasons at Michigan, Hill finished his career as a Wolverine with a 6-12 record, 3.69 ERA and striking out 176 in 137 innings pitched--earning him a 4th round selection (112th overall) by the Chicago Cubs in June 2002.

Shortly after signing on July 10, 2002, Hill joined the Cubs Single A affiliate in Boise, ID of the North West League. For his first year as a professional in Boise, Hill posted a 0-2 record with an ERA of 8.36 in only 14 innings pitched. Hill's inaugural season with Boise was the lefty's only season with a strikeout-per-9 innings pitched (K/9 IP) rate of less than 10--a career low 7.71.

For the next two years (2003-2004), Hill spent his time rotating through out all of the Cubs' Single A affiliates in Boise as well as Daytona (FL) and Lansing (MI).

In 2005, Hill graduated from Single A to the Cubs' AA affiliate West Tennessee. With West Tennessee, Hill achieved his greatest success as a professional to that date. Through 10 starts, Hill accumulated a 4-3 record with a 3.28 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 57 2/3 innings--a K/9 IP rate of 14.05--earning him a call-up to the Cubs' AAA affiliate in Iowa.

Due to injuries on the Cubs' Major league roster in June 2005, Hill received an early major league call-up during his transition phase from West Tennessee to Iowa.

Rich Hill's debut season in the Major Leagues failed to establish him as the promised "future ace" that many Cubs' fans believed he was destined to become. In 10 appearances (4 starts), Hill ended his brief stay in Chicago 0-2 with a 9.13 ERA--still striking out 21 batters in 23 2/3 innings pitched.

Although his Major League totals failed to impress, Hill finished the 2005 season strong with the Iowa Cubs. In 11 appearances (10 starts) with Iowa, Hill posted a 6-1 record with a 3.60 ERA-- striking out 92 batters in 65 innings. Hill's combined Minor League totals from 2005 earned him the organization's Minor League Player of the Year.

Rich Hill's Minor League totals in 2005:

11-4 record, 2.55 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 122 2/3 IP (14.24 K/9 IP), while only allowing 48 earned runs, 36 walks and only 20 home runs.

Similar to 2005, injuries to the Cubs' starting rotation early in the 2006 season forced the team to rely on Hill. In accordance to his first call-up, Hill's Major League performance failed to meet the team's expectations posting an 0-4 record with a 9.31 ERA in 19 1/3 innings and a mere 11 strikeouts in the month of May--causing his demotion back to AAA.

Shortly following his return to Iowa, Hill continued his dominance of the Minor Leagues. In 15 games (15 starts), Hill compiled a 7-1 record with a 1.80 ERA and 135 strikeouts in 100 innings--only allowing 3 home runs and 21 walks (.83 WHIP). In July, Hill was named the starting pitcher for the Pacific Coast League in the AAA All-Star Game--throwing 2 shutout innings in a victory over the Independent League All-Stars.

July 27, Hill was recalled to start against the St. Louis Cardinals. Although the Cubs managed to defeat the Cardinals, Hill lasted on 3 1/3 innings--allowing 4 earned runs.

Instead of removing Hill from the Major League roster for a third time, the Cubs allowed him to re-establish himself in the starting rotation for the remainder of the season--and were greatly rewarded in doing so.

From August 1-September 27, Hill finished 6-3 with a 3.48 ERA (lowering his season ERA from 7.92 on August 1 to a 4.17 to finish the season) in 76 2/3 innings of work while striking out 78--only allowing 22 earned runs and 21 walks. Until September 16, the Cubs were on pace to become the first Major league Baseball team without a single complete game pitched until Rich Hill shutout the Reds at Wrigley in 9 innings--only to follow up with his second consecutive complete game (coincidentally against the Reds--but at Great American Ballpark--the game was called after 5 innings due to weather but is considered a complete game) on September 22. Also, only 3 times out of his 12 appearances (11 starts), Hill allowed more than 2 earned runs.

Rich Hill's final line for 2006 (with the Cubs only):

6-7 record, 4.17 ERA in 17 games (16 starts), with 90 strikeouts in 99 1/3 innings (8.15 K/9 IP) and only 39 walks.

Translated Pitching Statistics* in 2006 (with the Cubs only):

9-5 record, 3.38 ERA with 103 strikeouts in 117 1/3 innings (7.9 K/9 IP), with 38 walks

Minor League Totals: 26-20 record, 3.53 ERA with 626 strikeouts in 451 2/3 innings (K/9 IP= 12.49).

Scouting Report:

Rich Hill, 26, is a 6'4" lefty with an incredible curveball--dropping in a 12-6 movement--often compared to that of Barry Zito's. To complement his devastating curve, Hill throws a 93 MPH fastball and is developing a changeup. When effective, Hill's curveball is near un-hittable and his fastball appears quicker than a radar gun would indicate. Hill sees his greatest success locating fastballs high-and-inside on hitters following his rapidly breaking curveball--leading to his high strikeout rate in the Minor Leagues.

At times, Hill suffers from a lack of confidence, which hampers his concentration while negatively affecting his delivery--often causing him to repeatedly miss the strikezone with his curve. Often times when his curve continually misses the zone, Hill attempts to over power hitters with his fastball. While Hill escaped many situations in the Minor Leagues on off-days, hitters in the Major Leagues are more likely to take advantage of him during his low points--as his first two call-ups indicate.

Over all, once Hill maintains his poise and confidence on the mound on the Major League level--for an extended period of time--he should develop into one of the National League's elite starting pitchers. Rich's final two months with the Cubs in 2006 indicate that his mental anguish against Major League hitting is likely behind him.

Rich Hill will begin his 2007 campaign as a member of the Cubs starting rotation for the first time in his career. Although the scrutiny that coincides with being considered a member of the Chicago Cubs starting rotation is very demanding, look for Hill to regain his form that brought him success all through out his Minor League career and briefly at the end of 2006 with the Cubs.

*According to Baseball Prospectus Translated Pitching Statistics convert all pitching statistics into a standard context. Pitchers are translated to a league where the top five pitchers (in innings) pitch an average of 275 innings. An average pitcher will have rates, per nine innings, of 9.00 hits, 1.00 home run, 3.00 walks, 6.00 strikeouts, and 4.50 earned runs. In the standard context, a replacement level pitcher has a 6.00; the translation is set up to conserve runs above replacement (all-time PRAR). Wins and losses are set using the Pythagorean formula with average run support, with the pitcher's actual deviation from his real expected win percentage added back in.

- All statistical and historical information provided courtesy of The Baseball Cube and CBS Sportsline.

Roto Authority: Sizing Up the Closers: NL Central

2006-12-13T10:18:00.000-06:00

Today's Roto Autority article Sizing Up The Closers: NL Central--

This division has a ton of closer uncertainty right now. Let's break it down.

Cubs: Said Jim Hendry on December 4th: "I have a lot of faith that Ryan Dempster will be a quality closer." Lou Piniella might see differently if Dempster blows four or five chances. The favored backup would likely be Kerry Wood if he's active, and Bob Howry if not.

Reds: According to manager Jerry Narron, David Weathers and Mike Stanton will be used in tandem to close games. To that I reply, "ugh." Sounds like a mostly avoidable fantasy situation for now. They are equally uninspiring relievers. If I had to choose only one I'd go with Weathers. Don't invest heavily in either guy.

Cardinals: Izzy will be the closer if healthy, according to Tony La Russa. He's been cleared to pitch in January and the current vibe is that Adam Wainwright will start. Isringhausen's control has disappeared in recent years, so he's extra shaky. It's hard to pick a favorite backup from this roster...I'll go with Russ Springer.

Read the entire article here.

A look at the Milwaukee Brewers farm system.

2006-12-09T15:51:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Propspectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Milwaukee Brewers Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects

1. Ryan Braun, 3b
2. Yovani Gallardo, rhp

Very Good Prospects

3. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp
4. Will Inman, rhp
5. Mark Rogers, rhp

Good Prospects

None

Average Prospects

6. Lorenzo Cain, rf/cf
7. Cole Gillespie, of
8. Mat Gamel, 3b
9. Hernan Irrabarren, 2b
10. Chris Errecart, of

1. Ryan Braun, 3b
DOB: 11/17/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, University of Miami

What He Did In 2006: .274/.346/.438 at High A (260 PA); .303/.367/.589 at AA (257 PA)

The Good: One of the more advanced hitters in the minors. Very good pitch recognition and tremendous bat speed allows him to use all fields with natural power. Does not need to fully square a ball to get it out of the park, with half of his Double-A hits going for extra-bases. A very good athlete with all of the tools to be a solid third baseman.

The Bad: Despite the tools, Braun is still inadequate at the hot corner. His footwork is bad, and while he has plus arm strength, his throws lack accuracy. His bat is nearly major league ready, so if the glove doesn't catch up fast enough, he could be moved to right field. The bat will play anywhere.
The Irrelevant If you want to make a list of the Top 10 Jewish prospects, Braun is No. 1, and it's not even close.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-order All-Star third baseman.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Braun is ticketed to begin the year at Triple-A, but the Brewers think there is a significant possibility of him bashing his way to the big leagues in short order. What position he'll be at when he gets there is still to be determined.

2. Yovani Gallardo, rhp
DOB: 2/27/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 2nd round, 2004, Texas HS

What He Did In 2006: 2.09 ERA at High A (77.2-54-23-103), 1.63 ERA at AA (77.1-50-28-85)

The Good: Very good stuff plus excellent command equals outstanding pitching prospect. Pitches off a heavy 91-93 mph fastball that touches 96, as well as two plus breaking pitches – a hard-sweeping slider and a downer curveball. Throws strikes and has advanced polish well beyond his years.

The Bad: Changeup is an average pitch, but that's nitpicking. Body doesn't offer the same projection as other top pitching prospects. That's nitpicking as well.
The Irrelevant: Are groundball ratios fluky? Gallardo was nearly 2 to 1 (83-43) in the Florida State League, yet gave up more flyballs (79) than grounders (61) at Double-A.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 2 starter and occasional All-Star.

Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Gallardo will turn 21 in Spring Training, yet he's ready for Triple-A, and the Brewers don't think he'll need a full season there in preparation for the big leagues.

Cubs season still rests on the shoulder of Mark Prior

2006-12-09T12:07:00.000-06:00

After signing both of the free-agent market's most coveted position players in Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs left their legions of loyal followers brimming with optimism for the future--convincing many that the upcoming season may finally see an end to years of misery on Chicago's North Side.

Along with Soriano and Ramirez, GM Jim Hendry retained Kerry Wood, Henry Blanco and Wade Miller--while adding veteran utility man Mark DeRosa to strengthen the team's versatility on the field.

"Spendry's" early shopping spree this off-season may have impressed at first, but failed to address the team's greatest area for concern--starting pitching.

In 2006, even the team's only durable starter--Carlos Zambrano--succumbed to the Cubs' injury plague towards the season's end. Through out the course of the season, injuries forced the Cubs to look towards their AA and AAA affiliates for starting pitching. The likes of Ryan O'Malley, Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, Juan Mateo and other virgin major leaguers--at the time--accounted for 80 of the Cubs' 162 starts in 2006.

Going into the off-season, only two spots in the rotation were guaranteed with Zambrano and the less-than-experienced lefty Rich Hill. Wade Miller continues his rehab to regain his form as the pitcher that won 45 games with the Houston Astros from 2001-2003 and Kerry Wood seems destined to return as a relief pitcher--leaving at minimum two vacancies in the starting rotation for next season.

Spendry's answer--committing $60 million to mediocre free-agents Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis.

Lilly, 30, fresh off of a 15-13 campaign with a 4.31 ERA (in 187 2/3 innings pitched with the Toronto Blue Jays,) is guaranteed $40 million over the course of the next four years, while Marquis, 28, ended his tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals (after being left off the playoff roster,) with an extremely high ERA of 6.02 and a 14-16 record (in 194 1/3 innings pitched).

While both Lilly and Marquis provide the durability and dependability--in terms of starts and innings pitched (Lilly has made 120 starts over the last 4 season--averaging 171 innings each season, while Marquis has made 97 starts--averaging 201 innings each season over the last 3 seasons,)--but neither is considered a top-of-the-rotation starter.

No matter what the brain-trust of Hendry, John McDonough , Larry Rothschild and Lou Piniella claim to believe, the Cubs' number two starter is--Mark Prior.

Prior, 26, is far-and-away the wild-card that will decide the fate of the Cubs' pitching staff. Despite recent commentary, the front office believes that Prior will magically heal and regain his throne as the "savior" of the Cubs' rotation. Adding Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis covers Hendry's bases.

In essence, Hendry is telling Cubs' nation that if Prior fails to contribute anything to the team again, he should not be viewed as the scapegoat.

Prior still possess the immense talent and the near-flawless mechanics that once earned him many comparisons to Hall of Fame pitcher Tom Seaver and is still young enough to rejuvenate his career.

Jim Hendry may claim that whatever Prior provides for the team in 2007 will be considered a "bonus", but he honestly believes otherwise. Until Mark Prior officially gives his annual interview stating that he will miss the beginning of Spring Training, he will be penciled in as the number 2 starter on Sweet Lou's scorecard.

Winter meetings Wrap-Up

2006-12-07T16:45:00.000-06:00

As the Winter Meetings come to a close, here is an in-depth review of each team's transactions over the past week in Orlando.

American League-

Baltimore Orioles - None
Boston Red Sox - Signed OF J.D. Drew to a 5YR/$70 million contract, Signed SS Julio Lugo to a 4YR/$36 million contract
Chicago White Sox - Traded RHP Freddy Garcia to the Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Gavin Floyd and RHP Gio Gonzalez, Re-signed IF Pablo Ozuna to a 1YR/$800,000 contract
Cleveland Indians - Signed OF David Delluci to a 3YR/$11.5 million contract, Signed RHP Joe Borowski to a 1YR/$4.25 million contract--with an option for a second year
Detroit Tigers - Acquired LHP Edward Campusano from the Milwaukee Brewers for cash
Kansas City Royals - Signed RHP Gil Meche to a 5YR/$55 million contract, Traded RHP Ambiorix Burgos to the New York Mets for RHP Brian Bannister
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - None
Minnesota Twins - None
New York Yankees - None
Oakland Athletics - Signed C/DH Mike Piazza to a 1YR/$8.5 million, Acquired OF Ryan Goleski from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for cash, Signed LHP Alan Embree to a 2YR/$5.5 million contract--with a club option for 2009, Released RHP Juan Dominguez, Named Ty Van Burkleo hitting coach
Seattle Mariners - Signed OF Jose Guillen to a 1YR/$5.5 million contract--with an option for a second year, Traded RHP Rafael Soriano to the Atlanta Braves for LHP Horacio Ramirez
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Released RHP Travis Harper, Designated LHP Bobby Livingston for assignment, Sent OF Ryan Goleski to the Oakland Athletics for cash
Texas Rangers - Re-signed RHP Vincente Padilla to a 3YR/$34 million contract
Toronto Blue Jays - None

National League-

Atlanta Braves - Traded LHP Horacio Ramirez to the Seattle Mariners for RHP Rafael Soriano
Arizona Diamondbacks - None
Chicago Cubs - Named Ryne Sandberg manager of the Peoria Chiefs (A), Signed LHP Ted Lilly to a 4YR/$40 million contract, Signed OF/1B Daryle Ward to a 1YR/$1 million contract, Sent OF Josh Hamilton to the Cincinnati Reds for cash--shortly after acquiring his rights in the Rule 5 Draft
Cincinnati Reds - Re-signed RHP David Weathers to a 2YR/$5 million contract, Acquired OF Josh Hamilton from the Chicago Cubs for cash
Colorado Rockies - Signed RHP LaTroy Hawkins to a 1YR/$3.5 million contract--with an option for a second year
Florida Marlins - None
Houston Astros - None
Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed RHP Jason Schmidt to a 3YR/$47 million contract, Signed OF Luis Gonzalez to a 1YR/$7 million contract, Signed C Mike Lieberthal to a 1YR/$1.25 million contract--with an option for a second year, Re-signed RHP Takashi Saito to a 1YR/$1 million contract
Milwaukee Brewers - Sent LHP Edward Campusano to the Detroit Tigers for cash
New York Mets - Traded RHP Brian Bannister to the Kansas City Royals for RHP Ambiorix Burgos
Philadelphia Phillies - Traded RHP Gavin Floyd and RHP Gio Gonzalez to the Chicago White Sox for RHP Freddy Garcia
Pittsburgh Pirates - None
San Diego Padres - Signed RHP Greg Maddux to a 1YR/$10 million contract--with an option for a second year
San Francisco Giants - Signed C Bengie Molina to a 3YR/$16 million contract, Signed IF Rich Aurilla to a 2YR/$8 million contract, Re-signed 3B Pedro Feliz to a 1YR/$5.1 million contract, Announced the retirement of 1B J.T. Snow
St. Louis Cardinals - Signed RHP Chris Carpenter to a 5YR contract extension worth $63.5 million--with a team option for 2012
Washington Nationals - None

MLB 365 Focus - Ichiro Suzuki

2006-12-03T22:01:00.000-06:00

Without any question, Ichiro Suzuki is the most successful player to migrate from the Japanese League to the Major League.

For the first portion of his professional baseball career with the Orix Blue Wave of Japan's Pacific League, Ichiro was without question one of the greatest player's in all of Japanese baseball. Ichiro debuted with the Blue Wave in 1992. For the majority of his first two seasons in Orix, Ichiro played in their minor league system.

After finally breaking into Orix's everyday lineup in 1994, Ichiro was unstoppable. Ichiro finished the 1994 season with a Japanese single-season record 210 hits and a line of .385/.437/.549 (.986 OPS). In 1995, Ichiro led the Blue Wave to their first pennant since 1983--being dubbed "The Human-Hitting Machine" by Japanese media.

Through out his Japanese career, Ichiro's numbers were stunning.

In nine seasons (1,057 games) with the Orix Blue Wave, Ichiro hit .355/.418/.524 (in 4,043 at bat's) only striking out 363 times, gathering 1,434 hits, 129 HR, 568 RBI, 231 2B, 33 3B and scoring 653 runs.

The most remarkable feat of all is that through out Ichiro's entire Japanese career, he was never caught stealing (220 stolen bases in 220 attempts).

November 9, 2000--Ichiro's negotiating rights were won by the Seattle Mariners with a bid of $13 million. On November 30, Ichiro signed a three-year deal with Seattle worth a total of $14 million. Ichiro became the first Japanese born position player in Major League Baseball history.

Ichiro was a force for the Mariners immediately following his debut in 2001. In each of his first six seasons, Ichiro compiled at minimum 200 hits, 100 runs, was awarded Rawlings' Gold Glove Award for his outstanding defensive work in rightfield and named to the American League All-Star Team.

In 2004, Ichiro broke George Sisler's 84 year old record for hits in a single season with 262 (Sisler's previous record was 257 hits with the St. Louis Browns in 1920). In 2006, Ichiro helped lead the Japanese team to victory in the inagural World Baseball Classic.

To date, Ichiro's career Major League numbers--all with the Seattle Mariners--are as follows.

Hitting line - .331/.376/.438 (.784 OPS) in 957 games with an Equivalent Average (EqA) of .288 with 1,354 hits, 235 SB (58 CS), 61 HR, 359 RBI, 155 2B, 50 3B and 671 runs, while only striking out 384 times in 4,096 at bats.

Ichiro accumulated 2,125 put-outs, 59 assists, and a mere 14 errors in his career.

Now, at age 33, Ichiro is entering the final year of his four year contract signed in December of 2003 (worth a total of $44 million) and is expected to test the free-agent market following the 2007 season--or depending on the state of the Mariners this upcoming season--dangled as trade bait.

Ichiro is in incredible physical shape at his age--but may be a little past his prime--yet still more productive than the majority of talent in Major League Baseball. In today's free-agent market, Ichiro will likely command upwards of $18-20 million per season for a minimum of four years. Ichiro is very durable--hardly missing any time since his big league debut.

Below is a breakdown of Ichiro's games played and at bat's for each of his six seasons in Major League Baseball.

Year/Games/At Bats

2001 - 157/692

2002 - 157/647

2003 - 159/679

2004 - 161/704

2005 - 162/679

2006 - 161/695

Unlike Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro's worth should last for the majority of his future contract. Ichiro is a remarkably intelligent hitter with great speed and enhanced baserunning instincts. In 2006, Ichiro's success ratio for stolen bases was an incredible 96%--stealing 45 bases in 47 attempts (comparred to Soriano's 71% a year ago).

Next offseason's class of free-agents features many superstar position players--and Ichiro is clearly at the top of that list.

* - Statistical information provided courtesy of the Baseball Cube and historical informaiton provided courtest of Wikipedia.org.

A look at the Los Angeles Dodgers farm system.

2006-12-01T16:49:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Prospectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Los Angeles Dodgers Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2. Andy LaRoche, 3B
3. Scott Elbert, LHP

Very Good Prospects:

4. James Loney, 1B

Good Prospects:

5. Jonathan Meloan, RHP
6. Josh Bell, 3B
7. Preston Mattingly, 1B

Average Prospects:

8. Blake DeWitt, 2B/3B
9. Bryan Morris, RHP
10. Chin-Lung Hu, SS

1. Clayton Kershaw
Position: P Born: March 19, 1988
Height: 6-3 Weight: 220
Bats: L Throws: L
High School: Highland Park (Dallas,TX)

2006 - 2-0, 1.95 ERA, 54 K's in 37 IP with Gulf Coast Dodgers (Gulf Coast League)

2. Andy LaRoche
Position: SS Born: August 13, 1983
Height: 5-11 Weight: 180
Bats: R Throws: R
College: Grayson County Junior College

2006 - .309/.419/.483, 9 HR, 46 RBI with Jacksonville (AA); .322/.400/.550, 10 HR, 35 RBI with Las Vegas (AAA)

Outrageous middle tier free-agent contracts are the wave of the future.

2006-11-28T17:31:00.000-06:00

J.P. Riccardi, currently the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, is responsible for re-establishing the Blue Jays' presence in a Yankees/Red Sox dominated world known as the AL East--and more so for creating havoc in the free-agent market a year ago.

Riccardi altered the future of free-agency with two off-season signings--A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan.

Burnett, then 28, finished his 2005 campaign matching a career-high in victories with a 12-12 record and a 3.44 ERA with the Florida Marlins--a relatively good season--not spectacular by any stretch of the imagination. Ryan, then 29, posted a career-year in his contract season--and first ever as closer--with 36 saves (besting his career high 3 from 2004) and a 2.43 ERA in 70.3 innings pitched.

In order to strike first in the free-agent market, Riccardi offered both Ryan and Burnett ridiculous contracts neither pitcher deserved. Ryan signed with the Blue Jays in November for 5 years and $47 million (at the time, the largest contract--in terms of monitary compensation--for a relief pitcher,) with Burnett following suit in December for 5 years and $55 million.

$55 million? Is a starter with no more than 12 wins in a season--and a career record under .500 (49-50 at the time)--worth $11 million a year? Only twice in Burnett's career has he reached or surpassed 200 innings pitched in a season. Riccardi's offer to Burnett almost exhonerates the Chicago Cubs for rewarding Kerry Wood's 13 win season of 2003 with a 3 year/$32.5 million contract.

Although Riccardi set the bar for overspending, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers--neither team being a stranger to ridiculous contract offers--continued the trend by offering Rafael Furcal (3 years for $35 million with the Dodgers) and Kevin Millwood (5 years for $60 million with the Rangers).

Now, in the 2006 offseason, the over-spending on less-than-extraordinary talent fad has not only continued--it has reached the point of insanity.

Recently, the outlandish contracts signed by Gary Matthews Jr. (5 years for $50 million with the Rangers), Juan Pierre (5 years for $44 million with the Dodgers), Carlos Lee (6 years for $100 million) and Adam Eaton (3 years for $24 million--to a pitcher that only appeared in 13 games in 2006) all make the Florida Marlins thankful that Miguel Cabrera only earned $472,000 in 2006.

Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre are the laughing stocks of the 2006 free-agency class. Matthews, 32, is a career .263/.336/.419 hitter--coming off of a career-contract season of .313/.371/.495 with 19 HR, 102 runs and 9 RBI--and may be a better than average defensive centerfielder but has never hit above .276 in a season until 2006 with Texas. Through out the course of Matthews' career, the journeyman outfielder has been placed on waivers on four seperate occasions.

Pierre, 29, is coming off of a season posting his second highest stolen base total (58) and the fourth time in his career eclipsing 200 hits (NL leading 204). Behind the mirage of this supposed proto-typical leadoff hitter is an adequate centerfielder--lacking arm strength of any capacity--past his prime years of production. The previous two seasons, Pierre has compiled a .284/.328/.371--only receiving 73 bases on balls in 1,428 plate appearances. Through out his career, Pierre's stolen base effiecency is a mere 73.6% (325 stolen bases in 441 attempts--including a horrendous 65% effiecency ratio in 2004).

Just a reminder, the Anaheim Angels will be paying for Gary Matthews services to the tune of $10 million annually over the duration of 5 years and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be paying Pierre $9 million annually over the duration of 5 years.

With the current state of free-agency, homegrown talent is at a high premium. Developing talent within an organization is a task that few teams outside the Marlins, Rockies and Devil Rays can boast as a strength.

Current skyrocketing demands for free-agents will only continue in years to come--especially next offseason when Andruw Jones, Trevor Hoffman, Vernon Wells, Adam Dunn, Carlos Guillen, Michael Young, Bobby Abreu and Ichiro Suzuki are all expected to file following the 2007 season.

A look at the Florida Marlins farm system.

2006-11-28T17:18:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Propspectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Florida Marlins Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

None

Very Good Prospects:

1. Sean West, LHP
2. Ryan Tucker, RHP
3. Chris Volstad, RHP

Good Prospects

4. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP
5. Gaby Hernandez, RHP
6. Aaron Thompson, LHP

Average Prospects

7. Rick Vanden Hurk, RHP
8. Tom Hickman, OF
9. Henry Owens, RHP
10. Jose Garcia, RHP

1. Sean West, LHP
DOB: 6/15/86
Height/Weight: 6-8/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Louisiana HS

What he did in 2006: 3.74 ERA, 120.1-115-40-102 at Low A

The Good: The towering lefthander is actually a good 20-30 pounds heavier than his listed weight, helping fill out a potentially stick-like frame. He currently throws 91-94 mph with plenty of room for improvement velocity-wise. All of his pitches fall a long way because of his height, leading to plenty of ground balls. Has strong competitive drive.

The Bad: His secondary offerings still lag behind, but they've come a long way since he was drafted as a one-pitch pitcher. Conditioning may be an issue, as he tends to lose velocity in later innings.

The Irrelevant: Part of one of the strongest draft classes in Louisiana history, West was one of seven pitchers from the state to be selected in the first 83 picks in 2005.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A front-of-the-rotation lefty starter, with closer possibilities in the background as Plan B.Gap Between

What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High. West's ceiling is greater than any of the arms from Florida's 2005 first-round pitcher-fest, yet the gap between what he is and what he can be is significant. Like all of them, a huge season is possible as they move en masse to the pitching-friendly Florida State League.

2. Ryan Tucker, RHP
DOB: 12/6/86
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, California HS

What he did in 2006: 5.00 ERA, 131.1-123-67-133 at Low A

The Good: The best raw arm of the young guns, pumping heavy 92-95 mph fastballs and touching 98 at times. He flashes a plus slider at times and has shown a good feel for a changeup.

The Bad: His slider is very inconsistent, leaving him extremely vulnerable when it's not on. He needs to throw the change up more in order to gain more confidence with it, as it certainly should become at least an average offering. His command is an issue at times, but improved throughout the season.

The Irrelevant: Of Tucker's 11 wild pitches on the season, five came in his first start.

In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A solid No. 3 starter at the least, and a No. 2 if the breaking ball comes around.Gap Between

What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: High. Tucker's ability to light up radar guns is not an issue, so he'll spend 2007 working on his secondary pitches. That could mean another year of stats that are less impressive than the total package

For more on Flordia's farm system, click here

Much more work needed to improve the NL Central.

2006-11-25T15:30:00.000-06:00

While the Chicago Cubs basically set the bar for free-agent spending so far this offseason, the rest of the NL Central is slowly beginning to catch up.

The Houston Astros answered the Cubs' signing of Alfonso Soriano by adding a top-tier free-agent outfielder of their own--Carlos Lee. In accordance with the incredible contract Soriano signed with Chicago (8 years for $136 million,) the Astros broke the bank in landing "El Caballo". Lee's deal is worth a reported $100 million over the course of the next 6 years.

Along with adding one of the best power hitters available on the market, Houston extended life-long Astro Craig Biggio's contract an additional season (1 year for $5.15 million,) and signed veteran starting pitcher Woody Williams (2 years for $12.5M) to address their increasingly depleated rotation. Williams fought through some minor injuries in 2006 with San Diego to post a 12-5 record with a 3.65 ERA, but at age 40 is far beyond his prime--and is definetely not Roger Clemens--whom will be sorely missed if General Manager Tim Purpura and Clemens fail to reach an agreement for a contract extension.

Today, Milwaukee traded left-handed starter Doug Davis and prospects, left-handed pitcher Dana Eveland and outfielder David Krynzel for catcher Johnny Estrada, right-handed starter Claudio Vargas and right-handed reliever Greg Aquino. Estrada brings the Brew-Crew a reliable defensive catcher with an above average bat. Two seasons removed from his break-out season in which he posted a .314/.378/.450 with 76 RBI with the Atlanta Braves, Estrada hit .302 in 2006 with Arizona--although his .328 on base percentage was rather dismal.

While the Cubs, Astros and Brewers begin ramping up their respective teams, the remaining three teams in the NL Central--the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals have yet to make any effort to build for the 2007 season--and all require drastic measures in order to compete next season.

-Pittsburgh Pirates: Hardly worth mentioning--even though they narrowly edged out the Cubs for fifth place in the division last season. An abundance of pitching is needed for the Pirates to even entertain the thought of losing less than 90 games. Last year's NL batting champ Freddie Sanchez was a great story in 2006--and a repeat performance is highly unlikely. It's unfortunate that Jason Bay's incredible talent will be wasted for at least one more season.

-Cincinnati Reds: Reds manager Jerry Narron shocked the entire baseball community in 2006. With unlikely pitching performances from starters Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, the Reds remained at the top of the NL Central much of the season--until a collapse in the final month--leaving the team short of the postseason with an 80-82 record. Prior to the 2006 trading deadline, the Reds shipped a pair or talented 28 year old sluggers in Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to the Washington Nationals to improve upon their relief pitching--subtracting 50+ home runs from their once devastating lineup.

Ken Griffey's health remains a consistent problem for the Reds as well. Since 2002, Griffey has only appeared in 425 games--averaging only 85 games per season in that span. Although "Junior" is no longer the elite superstar he once was in Seattle, Griffey's run production value is still above average--when healthy of course.

If the Reds plan on making another run in 2007, the pitching--and Griffey--must hold up.

-St. Louis Cardinals: The 2006 World Series Champions quite possibly have the most work ahead of them in order to repeat as champs--or even make the postseason. The only area that general manager Walt Jocketty has addressed is re-signing centerfielder Jim Edmonds for an additional two years--with his age (soon to be 37) and constant health concerns (only played in 109 games in 2006), the Cardinals would have been better off finding a replacement. The Cardinals were rumored to have strong interest in both Soriano and Lee, but never formally offered either a contract.

St. Louis' greatest area of concern is their starting rotation--or lack there of. Of the five main starters from 2006--Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver--only Carpenter is under contract for the 2007 season. Reportedly, the back-end of the rotation next season will likely include any combination of Adam Wainwright and former U.S.C. standout Anthony Reyes--but without a solid #2 and #3 starter, the Cards will not make the postseason--even with Albert Pujols.

Even after the mirage season that the 83 win Cardinals produced in 2006, the NL Central was the laughing stock of a pathetic National League. Despite the hundreds of millions Jim Hendry already spent this offseason, the Cubs are still light years away from winning their ellusive World Series--and at the present time--so is every other NL Central team.

A look at the Colorado Rockies farm system.

2006-11-25T13:42:00.000-06:00

From today's Baseball Propspectus article by Kevin Goldstein entitled Future Shock: Colorado Rockeis Top Ten Prospects...

Excellent Prospects:

1. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
2. Franklin Morales, LHP

Very Good Prospects:

3. Dexter Fowler, CF
4. Chris Ianetta, C
5. Ian Stewart, 3B
6. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
7. Shane Lindsay, RHP

Good Prospects:

8. Greg Reynolds, RHP

Average Prospects:

9. Samuel Deduno, RHP
10. Joe Koshansky, 1B

1. Troy Tulowitzki
Position: SS
Born: October 10, 1984 Santa Clara,California
Height: 6-3 Weight: 205 Bats: R Throws: R
College: Long Beach State University

2006: .291/.370/.473 (.843 OPS); 13 HR 61 RBI in 104 games (423 at bats) with Tulsa (AA - Texas League); .240/.318/.292 (.610 OPS); 1 HR 6 RBI in 25 games (96 at bats) with Colorado

Think Soriano is the answer? Think again.

2006-11-19T17:04:00.000-06:00

After his incredible contract year, few would question that Alfonso Soriano is the free-agent class of 2006's star attraction--or at least was.

According to WGN Radio--the flagship company of the Chicago Cubs, Soriano and the Cubs agreed to an astonishing 8 year deal worth a reported $136 million--with 6 years and $90 million guaranteed. This was a rather surprising announcement--especially to the the Phillies, Astros, Dodgers and Angels, all of which were rumored to compete in the "Soriano Sweepstakes".

Although many doubted the Cubs' ability to actually acquire top-tier talent, general manager Jim "Spendry" continues to silence his critics one pay check at a time. Along with signing Soriano, the Cubs extended Aramis Ramirez's contract, signed veteran journeyman Mark DeRosa, traded for left handed reliever Neal Cotts and re-signed Kerry Wood and Henry Blanco. After years of questioning the Tribune Company's actual motives regarding their largest asset--the Chicago Cubs, there is no longer any question that the front office is serious about winning immediately. Whether or not the team is approaching their new-found dedication towards a World Series is left to be seen.

It is definetely commendable that Spendry is making an enormous effort in the free-agent market, but Soriano--and his career .325 on base percentage are far from the solution to repair this decimated franchise.

Sure, in 2006 Soriano posted a modest .351 on base percentage and tacked on an astounding 46 home runs and 41 doubles--much of that in one of baseball's least hitter friendly parks in R.F.K.--but approaching Soriano was the wrong move.

Last week, Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder J.D. Drew opted out of the remaining three years of his contract to test the free-agent market. Drew, another client of Major League Baseball's answer to Bob Sugar, Scott Boras, is the left-handed, power-hitting, defensive machine the Cubs needed to target first and foremost. Although Drew's career is complete with as many trips to the Disabled List as actual games played, his run production value vastly exceeds that of Soriano.

Listed below is a comparision between Drew and Soriano the past four seasons (2003-06).

Batting Average - Drew - .291; Soriano - .279
On Base Percentage - Drew - .404; Soriano - .331
Slugging Percentage - Drew - .525; Soriano - .520
Equivalent Average - Drew - .314; Soriano - .280
Home Runs - Drew - 20.25; Soriano - 37
Runs Batted In - Drew - 68; Soriano - 95
Runs - Drew - 78; Soriano - 103
Doubles - Drew - 22; Soriano - 38

but, the kicker...

Games - Drew - 116 ; Soriano - 154
At Bat's - Drew - 388; Soriano - 644

In comparison, if Drew compiled as many plate appearances on average (644) per season as Soriano, nearly all of his power numbers are greater.

Below is a comparision between Drew and Soriano's average power numbers per season over the last four years (2003-2006)--in 644 plate appearances.

Home Runs - Drew - 34 (HR per 19 AB's); Soriano - 37 (HR per 17 AB's)
Runs Batted In - Drew - 113; Soriano - 95
Runs - Drew - 129; Soriano - 103
Doubles - Drew - 37; Soriano - 38

Of course, Soriano will instantly upgrade the Cubs power potential in the outfield--which is sorely needed. Soriano alone out homered the Cubs tandem of Juan Pierre, Matt Murton and Jacque Jones by a total of 46-43.

All this without mentioning the Cubs desperate need for starting pitching.

Who knows, perhaps Spendry will remain in the festive "Christmas Spirit" all winter long and continue to increase the Cubs' rising payroll. Maybe Soriano is just the beginning and Drew is primed to join him on the North Side.

If J.D. Drew is not in the Cubs immediate plans, Jim Hendry may have missed his chance once again.

Baseball Prospectus' look at the Cubs' farm system

2006-11-15T15:59:00.000-06:00

Kevin Goldstein, staff writer for Baseball Prospectus ranked the talent in the Chicago Cubs' farm system in his column Wednesday entitled Future Shock: Chicago Cubs Top Ten Prospects.

Excellent Prospects:
-None

Very Good Prospects:
-Donald Veal, LHP (1)
-Felix Pie, CF (2)

Good Prospects:
-Sean Gallagher, RHP (3)
-Eric Patterson, 2B (4)
-Tyler Colvin, OF (5)
-Mark Pawelek, LHP (6)
-Jeff Samardzija, RHP (7)
-Chris Huseby, RHP (8)

Average Prospects
-Scott Moore, 3B (9)
-Ryan Harvey, RF (10)

The Mets need starting pitching, plain and simple.

2006-11-14T21:19:00.000-06:00

The New York Mets regular season was nothing short of amazing.

General Manager Omar Minaya's offensive juggernaut dominated a signifigantly weakened National League from the start of the regular season up until the NLCS. Behind M.V.P. candidates third baseman David Wright, short stop Jose Reyes and centerfielder Carlos Beltran the Mets seemed destined to reach the World Series for the first time since the infamous "Subway Series" against the rival Yankees in 2000--until the team's greatest inefficiency kicked in--a lack of starting pitching.

Although the Mets battled the St. Louis Cardinals to the best of their abilitity in the NLCS, relying on a descimated rotation and an over-used bullpen ultimately cost the crew from Flushing Meadows a bout with the Tigers in the Fall Classic.

With front of the rotation stars Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez missing in action for the entire duration of the post-season, manager Willie Randolph was left with future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine to lead a group of less intimidating arms in the often erratic Oliver Perez, veteran Steve Trachsel and rookie John Maine to attempt to fill the void. To their credit, the remaining quartet of pitchers filled in quite well--namely Glavine. The former Brave posted a 2-1 record in the post-season with a 1.59 ERA--allowing only three earned runs in three starts.

In order to repeat their success of 2006 and capture their first World Series title since 1986, the New York Metropolians require immediate repair to a once feared starting rotation--especially now that it appears Pedro will miss the entire first-half of the 2007 season after under going surgery to repair his right rotator cuff. Plus, Glavine denied his option for the up-coming season to test the free-agency market--possibly re-signing with the Atlanta Braves.

The following steps would provide the Mets the best opportunity to advance in the 2007 post-season.

1. Sign free-agent LHP Barry Zito to a 5 year contract worth $17 million per season, with an option for the 2012 season.

2. Trade RHP Aaron Heilman and OF Lastings Milledge to the Florida Marlins for LHP Dontrelle Willis.

Minaya already addressed a need at second base by extending veteran Jose Valentin through the 2007 season for $3.8 million and extended 112 year old "El Duque" through the 2008 season for $6 million total.

The thought of extending Steve Trachsel any longer in New York should never enter Minaya and Company's thought process. Even though Barry Zito will never repeat his tremendous 2002 Cy Young Award winning season of 2002 and is a stretch at $17 million per season, the lefty with the best curveball this side of Roy Oswalt is by far the best available option. Zito is extremely reliable on the mound--pitching at least 200 innings and 34 starts every season from 2001-2006--with a career record of 102-63 and a 3.55 ERA.

Dontrelle Willis will also remain a key target in constructing the 2007 rotation. With hot-shot youngster Lastings Milledge reportedly fallen from grace in New York, the talented outfielder would definetely spark the interest of Marlins General Manager Larry Beinfest.

Aside from the starting rotation, little is needed to improve the Mets. Every position on the field is signed through the 2007 season--except leftfield.

With the outstanding power and speed already on the Mets lineup card, an overwhelming free-agent signing such as Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee is not necessary. Re-signing Cliff Floyd is an option, although his health is a consistent cause for concern. Other middle-tier options for leftfield include Jose Cruz Jr., Moises Alou, David Delluci, Jose Guillen and Trot Nixon.

But, first and foremost, the Mets need starting pitching and they need to snatch it up before it's too late.

Baseball's next one hundred million dollar man: Alfonso Soriano

2006-11-13T13:15:00.001-06:00

Here's a riddle for you--how much will it cost to sign baseball's first player to hit 40 or more home runs, 40 or more doubles and steal 40 or more bases all in the same season?

The answer--one hundred billion--err million dollars.

All Dr. Evil references aside, the soon-to-be former Washington Nationals' star outfielder is preparing to join the ranks of Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez in Major League Baseball's cozy nine figure club.

Soriano, who turns 31 in January, rejected an extension offer from the Nationals to remain in D.C. for an additional five years--worth $75 million total--shortly following the regular season. Reports from several media outlets including Sports Illustrated.com and ESPN.com indicated that the second baseman-turned-outfielder is seeking a six year deal worth $102 million ($17 million per year).

Even with today's sky-rocketing price tags for free-agents, is Alfonso Soriano deserving of induction into the nine figure club?

It's hard to ignore the incredible offensive season Soriano produced--especially in Washington's cavernous R.F.K. Stadium. Alfonso posted a .277/.351/.560 (career highs in both on base percentage and slugging percentage), with 46 home runs, 41 doubles, 95 RBI, 119 runs and 41 stolen bases. Plus, for the first time in his career, Soriano accounted for an EqA (equilvalent average) of .300. Also, Soriano more than doubled his total walks from 2005, jumping from 33 to 67 in 2006--including a career high 16 intentional walks.

On top of his offensive accomplishments this past season, Soriano finally compiled a season highlighting positive defensive strides. In 2006, the Nationals switched Soriano from his natural position at second base to left field--despite his request to remain at second. As a defensive second baseman, Soriano was amongst one of Major League Baseball's most inept. From 2001-2005, Soriano led all second baseman in total errors with 105--averaging 21 per season. Moving to left field payed off dividends to Soriano's defensive credibility, only accounting for 11 errors in his first full season at the position. A corner out field position also utlizes the strength of his arm more so than at second base.

Unless Soriano replicates his remarkable 2006 season--repeatedly over the next six seasons--paying him $102 million is ludacris.

Soriano is a career .280 hitter with an extremely low .325 career on base percentage--especially for a lead-off hitter. Only one year in Soriano's career resulted in a batting average at or above .300 at season's end (.300 exactly in 2002 with the Yankees). Although Soriano's 41 stolen bases were sixth most in the the National League for the 2006 season, his success ratio of 71% (17 times caught stealing in 58 attempts) was even lower than Chicago Cubs centerfielder Juan Pierre's 74%. All this while striking out a career-high 160 times.

Now that Aramis Ramirez is officially off the market (re-signing with the Chicago Cubs for five years and $73 million with an option for 2012), Alfonso Soriano is unanimously the free-agent market's most attractive representative. With many teams salivating at the chance to sign him, the Anaheim Angels, Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs are expected to be the most active in pursuing Soriano's services.

There's no question that Soriano will immediately impact any team for the better. At his age, Soriano's power numbers should translate over well for the duration of his contract--while naturally, his speed may decline.

Hopefully, his 2006 season was the benchmark of what to expect for the future.

At $17 million per season--it better be.

Will Aramis Ramirez still be a Cub in 2007?

2006-11-06T19:05:00.000-06:00

One of baseball's most puzzling dilemmas this offseason involves the future of Chicago Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez.

Prior to the 2005 season, Ramirez signed an extension to remain with the Cubs for 4 years worth $42 million (with an $11 million option for a fifth). The Catch--both sides agreed to an out clause that would allow Aramis to option out of his contract after the 2006 season, giving him the opportunity to file for free-agency.

After another incredible offensive output this past season (.291/.352/.561, 38 HR, 119 RBI, 93 runs), Ramirez, 28, decided to exercise the opt-out clause and soon will test the free-agent market.

So the beckoning question lingers for the Cubs--how necessary is Aramis Ramirez to the team's future?

After years of mediocre journeymen continually rotating around Wrigley's "hot corner," Ramirez instantly provided a much needed offensive spark for the first time since the heel-clicking days of Ron Santo. In his first full season with the Cubs in 2004, Aramis accounted for 106 RBI with 99 runs and 36 homers with a line of .318/.373/.578. From 2004-2006, Aramis hit .304/.361/.569 with 105 home runs, 314 RBI, 264 runs and a mere 185 strikeouts in 1,604 at bats (averaging a strikeout every 8.67 at bats).

Ramirez's numbers are amongst the league leaders at his position the past three seasons, yet his batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage all regressed following the 2004 season. In 2004, Aramis hit .318/.373/.578 followed by .302/.358/.568 in 2005 and finally .291/.352/.561 in 2006.

While Aramis' numbers have not decreased signifigantly, his lack of production early in the season is cause for greater concern. From 2003-2006, Ramirez only managed a .246/.329./.462 in the month of April (.197/.321/.394 in 2006). After Derrek Lee's injury on April 19, Ramirez failed to produce--costing the Cubs a chance to compete in a weakened National League.

As a defensive third basemen, Aramis is slightly below average. Although he improved signifigantly upon his 33 errors in 2003 (39 total errors from 2004-2006), his career .946 fielding percentage is less than stellar. Relying on the defensive capabilities of Lee at first base also saved Ramirez from a number of throwing errors.

Aramis is also widely criticizied for his "laziness " on the basepath. Often accused of casually jogging to first base after hitting into "routine" ground-outs, Ramirez hardly embodies the type of fundamentally sound type of player manager Lou Piniella will rely on. Former Cubs Manager Dusty Baker consistently defended his player, blamming Ramirez's apparent "lack of hustle" on a nagging groin injury--which supposedly healed more than a year prior.

Can the Cubs compete in 2007 without Ramirez's bat in the lineup--even at an estimated $15 million a year?

It is definitely in the team's best interests to re-sign Aramis--especially when the Dodgers and Angels expressed extreme interest in trading for the third baseman at the All-Star break (both teams boast two of the deepest farm systems in all of baseball).

If a deal between the Cubs and Aramis fails to commence, there are other cost-effective and productive alternatives to fill-in at third base.

One option Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry should explore is Kansas City Royals' breakout hitter Mark Teahen. Teahen, 25, put up tremendous numbers in his second season with the Royals. Although a shoulder injury ended his season a month premature, Teahen posted a line of .290/.357/.517 with 18 home runs, 69 RBI, 70 runs and 10 stolen bases (10 attempts)--all in only 393 at bats. With the impending arrival of Texas League (AA) Player of the Year Alex Gordon at third base, Teahen could become expendible. Teahen's price tag ($344,500 in 2006) is much more cost-effective than Ramirez's most recent $10.5 million salary. Plus, Teahen offers the Cubs' predominately right-handed lineup a much needed left-handed bat.

Another alternative worthy of consideration is former Cub--Nomar Garciaparra. Alhough his health problems and age (he turns 34 in July) are of concern, Nomar remains one of baseball's elite hitters when active. In 122 games this past season as a Dodger, Nomar hit .303/.367/.505 with 20 home runs and 93 RBI. Recently, Garciaparra metioned he is willing to returning to third base or move to the outfield. In 2006, Nomar signed for a mere $6 million--with incentive options worth up to an additional $4 million.

Aramis Ramirez is with out a doubt one of the game's premier power hitting third basemen. Any team in Major League Baseball would be considerably better offensively adding his bat to their lineup.

Cub fans need to realize that there are other options at third base--possibly better suited for their team--than Aramis Ramirez.

Offseason focus - Chicago Cubs

2006-10-28T15:37:00.000-05:00

The St. Louis Cardinals accomplished the unthinkable by capturing their first World Series title since 1982.

This left every other National League team--and every American League team in baseball scratching their heads. How could such a mediocre team with only 83 wins in the regular season defeat any AL squad?

One team in particular that should be confused by the Cardinals post-season run is the Chicago Cubs.

The Chicago Cubs, fresh off another injury-filled season focusing on the absences of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood--with special guest Derrek Lee, finished a dismal 66-96. The only highlights of the Chicago Cubs' season included the rise of left-hander Rich Hill later in the latter months, Carlos Zambrano's dominance and an 11-8 record against the St. Louis Cardinals--including a four game sweep at Wrigley in late July.

But the Cardinals were the team celebrating a championship at the end of the year, leaving Cubs' faithful to resort to reciting their perennial mantra--"wait 'til next year."

If next year is really going to be the year for the Cubs, then a drastic overhaul is required at 1060 W. Addison.

A number of monumental changes have already come to fruition shortly after the conclusion of the season. Cubs CEO/President Andy MacPhail tendered his resignation immediately following the final game of the year on October 1 to be replaced (at least on a temporary basis) by Cubs marketing vice president John McDonough.

Soon after MacPhail's departure, [general manager] Jim Hendry announced that manager Dusty Baker would not see his contract extension. After an exhausting search interviewing candidates such as [former Florida Marlins manager] Joe Girardi and [television analyst and former Arizona Diamondbacks manager] Bob Brenly, Hendry named Lou Piniella manager.

Piniella, former manager of the New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds, Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Devil Rays, is known through out baseball as a hard-nosed, fundamental purist that is as likely to be ejected as he is to lead his team to victory.

Sweet Lou explained during his press conference that the Chicago Cubs are dedicated to winning immediately.

"Urgency is important. We're going to win here, and that's the end of the story."

For Lou to fare better than his .412 winning percentage during his tenure in Tampa, the Cubs need to be active through out the off-season. With his job on the line, Hendry must address the many problems on the team--such as a power hitting outfield presence, upgrading at second base and above all, repair the starting rotation.

With many players expected to be "on the market" in terms of availability via trades and the upcoming class of free agents, Hendry is left with many options to work with--as well as the promise of an increased budget to work with (rumored to reach the neighborhood of $115 million).

For an immediate turn around and to take advantage of a significantly weaker NL Central, the Cubs need to take the following actions.

1. Extend 3B Aramis Ramirez's contract after he opts out of his 4 year deal. Sign Ramirez to a 4 year contract worth $56 million ($14 million per season) with an option for a fifth year ($2.5 million buyout clause).

2. Extend RHP Carlos Zambrano's contract to avoid his final season of arbitration eligibility for 5 years and $60 million ($12 million per season).

3. Trade LHP Sean Marshall, OF Felix Pie (AAA) and C Michael Barrett to the Toronto Blue Jays for OF Vernon Wells and LHP David Purcey (AAA).

4. Sign C Bengie Molina to a 3 year contract worth $24 million ($8 million per season). Molina has a $7.5 million option with the Toronto Blue Jays in which [Blue Jays general manager] J.P. Riccardi has stated the team will decline.

5. Sign free-agent RHP Jason Schmidt to a 3 year contract worth $39 million ($13 million per season) with an option for a fourth season ($2 million buyout clause).

6. 6. Trade OF Matt Murton, LHP Mark Pawelek (A) and OF Ryan Harvey (AA) to the Florida Marlins for LHP Dontrelle Willis.

7. Sign free-agent OF Dave Roberts to a 3 year contract worth $18 million ($6 million per season).

8. Buy out the $13.5 million option of RHP Kerry Wood for $3 million. Re-sign Wood to an incentive laden contract with a base of $3.5 million for 1 year.

9. Sign free-agent SS/OF Mark DeRosa to a 2 year contract worth $7.5 million (escalating in monetary compensation each season; 2007 - $3.5 million, 2008 - $4 million). Include an option for a third year (undisclosed buy out).

10. Extend C Henry Blanco's contract for 2 years and $5 million.

11. Extend RHP Wade Miller's contract, adding 1 year worth an additional $1.5 million plus incentives based on performance and innings pitched.

In essence, the Chicago Cubs opening day 25 man roster would consist of--

C - Bengie Molina, Henry Blanco
1B - Derrek Lee
2B - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Ramirez, Scott Moore
SS - Mark DeRosa, Cesar Izturis
LF - Dave Roberts, Angel Pagan
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Jacque Jones, Michael Restovich

SP - Carlos Zambrano, Jason Schmidt, Dontrelle Willis, Rich Hill, Wade Miller, Mark Prior

Bullpen - David Aardsma, Michael Wuertz, Scott Eyre, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood

Closer - Bob Howry

First and foremost, the Cubs must agree to terms with Aramis Ramirez--before thinking about their next move. Even though his production value prior to the All-Star break was disappointing at best--.259/.320/.481, Ramirez exploded in the second half with a line of .328/.388/.653 including 22 home runs, 67 RBI and 57 runs scored. Allowing Ramirez to file for free-agency would devastate the offensively challenged Cubs.

While free-agents Barry Zito and Japanese defector Daisuke Matsuzaka likely headed to either of the New York teams, Jason Schmidt is a perfect fit as a number two starter in the Cubs rotation--and will be a cheaper alternative to Zito and Matsuzaka.

Vernon Wells and Dontrelle Willis are two of the biggest names rumored to be on the block. Wells is a cheaper alternative to Alfonso Soriano in the outfield and provides much better defensive abilities (Wells is expected to win his third straight Gold Glove Award in center-field). Juan Pierre, the Cubs 2006 center-fielder is expected to test the free-agent market. Wells not only upgrades the team's power at the position--32 home runs, 40 doubles and 106 RBI in 2006, he is also relatively quick on the base path--stealing a career-high 17 bases this past season.

Dontrelle Willis is no stranger to the Cubs organization. On March 27,2002 Willis was traded by the Cubs with Ryan Jorgensen, Jose Cueto and Julian Tavarez to the Florida Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. Willis, still only 24 years old, is in line to earn $6 million after arbitration. With the other Marlins' incredibly gifted cast of young arms in the rotation scheduled to cost a mere $1.552 million--combined, Willis is likely headed out of Miami.

With Mark Prior's health status in a perpetual state of question, Schmidt and Willis will ease the worries of the Cubs' faithful.

Also, Roberts will compensate for the departure of Pierre and his 58 stolen bases. In 2006, Roberts stole 49 bases for the San Diego Padres--with an 89% success ratio--compared to Pierre's 74%. In terms of offensive numbers, Pierre and Roberts were almost identical in 2006. One offensive category stands out decidedly in Roberts' favor--on base percentage. Roberts posted a .360 OBP, 30 points higher than Pierre's. The kicker--Juan Pierre is going to command nearly $4-5 million more per year than Roberts.

Finally, the issue of closer is an area of concern for the Cubs. In 2006, only Cardinals' closer Jason Isringhausen blew more save opportunities than Cubs' closer Ryan Dempster. Bob Howry is likely to challenge Dempster for the closer role as may Kerry Wood. If and when the health-challenged Wood is extended, he will no longer occupy a spot in the starting rotation and may excel in the role.

For the Cubs to rise from the ashes and compile a storied season reminiscent of the 2006 seasons of the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals, many changes need to continue. With the state of the National League as a whole at an extreme low point, now is the time for the Cubs to regroup and take advantage.

All fabled curses aside, the Chicago Cubs are only going to win with the right aggressive moves--and not centralize their focus around Mark Prior.

- Quoted material provided courtesy of USA Today. Statistical information provided courtest of The Baseball Cube and Baseball Prospectus.

AL and NL Awards

2006-10-25T16:00:00.000-05:00

While teams such as the Detroit Tigers and Florida Marlins proved to be the greatest "team" efforts of the 2006 campaign, this past season will be remembered as another year of signifigant individual performance. Perhaps the success of players over-shadowing their respective teams is partially to blame for the disappointing seasons experienced by perennial power-houses such as the Boston Red Sox, Anaheim Angels and the Chicago White Sox.

For the first time since the 1995 season, both leagues failed to produce a pitcher with 20 or more victories. Johan Santana continued his dominance against American League hitting with 19 wins. Surprisingly, the only other 19 game winner in either league was New York Yankee sinker-baller Chien Ming Wang. In the National League, six different pitchers maxed out at 16 victories.

Due to a slightly down year for pitchers, only three earned recognition on the following Most Valuable Player rankings in both leagues combined.

The Most Valuable Player's of the American League and the National League are ranked below in decending order by league.

American League:

10. Chien Ming Wang, RHP, New York Yankees - 19-6, 3.63 ERA, 218 IP

9. Vernon Wells, CF, Toronto Blue Jays - .303/.357/.542, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 17 SB, 40 2B, 185 hits, 91 runs

8. Miguel Tejada, SS, Baltimore Orioles - .330/.379/.498, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 37 2B, 214 hits, 99 runs

7. Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland Indians - .290/.375/.533, 28 HR, 76 RBI, 22 SB, 53 2B, 190 hits, 134 runs

6. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins - .347/.429/.507, 13 HR 84 RBI, 36 2B, 181 hits

5. Jermaine Dye, RF, Chicago White Sox - .315/.385/.622, 44 HR, 120 RBI, 103 runs

4. Johan Santana, LHP, Minnesota Twins - 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 245 K's/233 2/3 IP, 1.00 WHIP

3. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins - .321/.375/.559, 34 HR, 130 RBI, 37 2B, 97 runs

2. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox - .287/.413/.636, 54 HR, 137 RBI, 115 runs

American League MVP:

Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees - .343/.417/.483, 97 RBI, 118 runs, 214 hits, 34 SB

National League:

10. Brandon Webb, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 16-7, 2.88 ERA, 173 K's/231 IP, 1.11 WHIP

9. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets - .300/.354/.487, 19 HR, 81 RBI, 30 2B, 17 3B, 194 hits, 122 runs, 64 SB

8. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets - .311/.381/.531, 26 HR, 116 RBI, 96 runs, 181 hits, 20 SB, 40 2B

7. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies - .309/.379/.527, 32 HR, 102 RBI, 40 2B, 203 hits, 131 runs, 15 SB

6. Alfonso Soriano, LF, Washington Nationals - .277/.351/.560, 46 HR, 95 RBI, 41 SB, 41 2B, 119 runs

5. Carlos Beltran, CF, New York Mets - .275/.388/.594, 41 HR, 116 RBI, 18 SB, 38 2B, 127 runs

4. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros - .315/.420/.621, 45 HR, 136 RBI, 95 runs, 29 2B

3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B/OF, Florida Marlins - .340/.432/.570, 26 HR, 114 RBI, 50 2B, 195 hits, 112 runs

2. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies - .313/.425/.659, 58 HR, 149 RBI, 104 runs, 182 hits

National League MVP:

Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals - .331/.431/.671, 49 HR, 137 RBI, 33 2B, 119 runs, 177 hits (in only 535 at bats)

Neither league's winning candidate was the "clear-cut" choice. Although Ryan Howard's power numbers were relatively higher than Pujols', King Albert was most valuable from start to finish. Using sabermetric statistical formulas, Pujols narrowly edged out Howard as the victor. Albert Pujols finished the 2006 season with an Equivalent Average* (EqA) of .350 and a WARP** (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 11.9 compared to Howard's EqA of .340 and a 8.6 WARP.

A strong case could be argued for any of the three New York Mets representatives selected, not to mention Alfonso Soriano. Soriano was the first player in Major League Baseball history to hit 40 home runs, 40 doubles and steal 40 bases in the same season.

The American League MVP was just as difficult to decide. Through out the season, the AL's best players varied from David Ortiz, Jermaine Dye and the entire Minnesota Twins organization.

Overall, Derek Jeter was the class of the American League. Instead of regressing after the untimely injuries suffered to the New York Yankees' Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui, Jeter remained poised and carried the Yankees to their 11th consecutive AL East title and 12th straight post-season appearance.

* - Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB). REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.

** - Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season.

- Statistical information and definitions provided courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Cardinals, baseball's answer to the Pittsburgh Steelers

2006-10-25T08:15:00.000-05:00

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Both franchises are among the most successful in their respective sports. Both [Steelers head coach] Bill Cowher and [Cardinals manager] Tony LaRussa are two of the most respected leaders in professional sports and considered near-legends of the modern sporting era.

After the Steelers surprising Super Bowl victory a season ago, it seems fitting that a Major League Baseball team would follow in Pittsburgh's unlikely footsteps.

The 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers team supported a rich ensemble of talent. Rising superstar quarterback Ben Roethlisberger led an offensive unit consisting of all-pro wide-receiver Hines Ward, rookie sensation tail-back Willie Parker and the future Hall of Fame running back Jerome Bettis. Although the Steelers possessed a talented offensive output, the re-incarnation of the "Steel Curtain" on the defensive side of the ball deserve much of the credit behind the historic season. The defensive prowess of outside line-backer Joey Porter and the incredible instincts of strong safety Troy Polamalu proved to be a deadly combination for opposing offenses.

Even with a very talented team, the Steelers were rather mediocre throughout out the course of the season. Heading into a December 11 match-up against the Chicago Bears, the Steelers were a mere 5-4 and in jeopardy of missing a playoff berth in a very competitive AFC.

After a 21-9 dismantling of the streaking Bears, the Steelers cruised through the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs to win an amazing fifth Super Bowl title (their first since 1979).

Much like the Steelers of a year ago, the Cardinals found themselves in a rough patch towards the end of the season. Going into the final two week period of the regular season, St. Louis maintained an 8.5 game lead over the Houston Astros in the NL Central.

After a seven game losing streak, the Cardinals lead dissolved to a less-than-comfortable 1.5 games. Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, St. Louis was in a dire must-win situation in order to win the division for the third straight year.

Behind the heroic efforts from role players Jeff Suppan and Scott Spiezio, the Cardinals stole two out of three games against the Milwaukee Brewers to capture the NL Central.

Just as the Steelers before them, the Cardinals were considered the "under-dog" team in each of their post season match-ups.

While the Cardinals seemingly invincible tandem of [2005 NL MVP] Albert Pujols and [2005 NL Cy Young Award Winner] Chris Carpenter were reliable at their peak form, questions definitely surrounded much of the remaining teammates. Multiple Gold Glove winning centerfielder had missed nearly a month due to post-concussion sydrome and third baseman Scott Rolen's ailment was causing him to struggle at times.

Aside from Carpenter and Jeff Suppan, the Cardinals starting rotation was in shambles. Jeff Weaver had been inconsistent at best and Jason Marquis was left off of the playoff roster.

Through out the 2006 Cardinals playoff run, many unexpected contributors graced the spotlight. Players such as Spiezio, Weaver, So Taquchi, Yadier Molina, Anthony Reyes and a phenomenal effort from the bullpen propelled the Cardinals past the San Diego Padres and heavily favored New York Mets--both series' reaching the maximum amount of games; to reach the World Series for the second time in three years

Although the final chapter of the St. Louis Cardinals' 2006 season is yet to be completed, the journey to reach the World Series is nearly as inspiring. Even with a 2-1 lead in the "Fall Classic", the Detroit Tigers are considered the favorites--so the story continues for at least another two games.

The sporting world has already seen the likes of a supposed "mediocre" team prevail this year--and the Cardinals are looking continue silencing their critics as well.

Class of 2006: The Top Ten Rookie Pitchers

2006-10-24T08:23:00.000-05:00

Aside from the Detroit Tigers amazing run towards the World Series and the break-out offensive season provided by Philadelphia Phillies' slugger Ryan Howard, the 2006 season will be remembered most for the incredible cast of rookie pitchers that dominated through out the league.

This past season, ten rookie pitchers impacted the face of Major League Baseball and provided a breath of fresh air to many teams in an age when middle-tier pitchers (A.J. Burnett, Kevin Millwood, etc.) are signed to ridiculous contracts-- over-compensating them for performing at a "slightly" above average level. This winter's free-agent class is expecting to "cash-in" even more-so than the exaggerated group of a year ago. 2002 American League Cy Young Award winning curveball specialist Barry Zito, Jason Schmidt, Mike Mussina (presuming his $17 million option is bought out for the listed $1.5 million buy the New York Yankees), Andy Pettitte (assuming Pettitte continues to pitch in the Major Leagues), and Japanese phenom, 26 year old "gyro-ball" specialist Daisuke Matsuzaka all enter the free-agent market--to the dismay of many team's checkbooks.

Every pitcher of the top ten selected is 25 years old or younger and will remain a relative bargain for their parent clubs through their arbitration years.

The Top Ten Rookie Pitchers of 2006 are--

10. Scott Olsen - Marlins, 22, LHP - 31 starts, 12-10, 4.04 ERA, 166 K's in 180 2/3 IP.

9. Joel Zumaya - Tigers, 21, RHP - 62 games, 6-3, 1.94 ERA, 97 K's in 83 1/3 IP (10.48 K/9 IP.)

8. Cole Hamels - Phillies, 22, LHP - 23 starts, 9-8, 4.08 ERA, 145 K's in 132 1/3 IP (9.86 K/9 IP.)

7. Chuck James - Braves, 24, LHP - 25 games (18 starts), 11-4, 3.78 ERA in 119 IP.

6. Anibal Sanchez - Marlins, 22, RHP - 18 games (17 starts), 10-3, 72 K's in 114 1/3 IP--threw MLB's first no hitter (September 6, against the Diamondbacks) since Randy Johnson's perfect game on May 18, 2004 against the Atlanta Braves.

5. Josh Johnson - Marlins, 22, RHP - 31 games (24 starts), 12-7, 3.10 ERA, 133 K's in 157 IP.

4. Jered Weaver - Angels, 24, RHP - 19 starts, 11-2, 2.56 ERA (1.03 WHIP) 105 K's in 123 IP.

3. Francisco Liriano - Twins, 23, LHP - 28 games (16 starts), 12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 K's in 121 IP (10.71 K/9 IP.)

2. Justin Verlander - Tigers, 23, RHP - 30 starts, 17-9, 3.63 ERA in 186 IP.

1. Jon Papelbon - Red Sox, 25, RHP - 59 games, 4-2, 0.92 ERA (0.78 WHIP) 35 saves, 75 K's in 68 1/3 IP (9.88 K/ 9 IP.)

Honorable Mention-- Jeremy Sowers, Mariners; Adam Wainwright, Cardinals; John Maine, Mets; Jon Lester, Red Sox; Chad Billingsley, Dodgers; Matt Cain, Giants; Renyel Pinto, Marlins and Sean Marshall, Cubs.

Due to his complete body of work, Justin Verlander is the unanimous decision for Rookie of the Year in the American League over Liriano and Papelbon. Although Papelbon appeared in 59 games through out the course of the season, Verlander started 30 games for the American League Champion Tigers--winning 17 of his decisions.

For a vast majority of the season, Josh Johnson led the National League in Earned Run Average--before straining a ligament in his forearm. Johnson pitched his last game of the 2006 season on September 12. The Marlin rookie appears to be one of the leading candidates for the National League Rookie of the Year Award.

Will the trend of talented young pitchers continue to dominate in both leagues in 2007? Another stellar group of talented arms are expected to break through next season including New York Yankees' prospect Phillip Hughes, New York Mets' Mike Pelfrey and the Cincinnati Reds' Homer Bailey.

Perhaps next season will see an increased offensive output from the 2007 class. Not to disregard the tremendous seasons from 2006 rookie position players such as the Brewers' Prince Fielder, Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman and the Marlins' Dan Uggla, but the 2007 class of rookie offensive players includes some interesting names. Look for Angels hot-shot prospect--and 2005 California League (High A) Most Valuable Player, Brandon Wood to debut in Anaheim at some point in the season.

Wood, 21, spent his 2006 season in AA Arkansas of the Texas League producing a line of .276/.355/.552 with 25 HR, 83 RBI and 19 SB in 118 games (with an extremely high strikeout count of 149 in 453 at bats--a 0.328 K/AB ratio). Brandon's natural position is short stop, but with all of the Angels' problems at third base, Wood may receive the call up to the "big show" after Spring Training.

Other position players (or designated hitters) to watch out for include Chicago Cubs' centerfielder Felix Pie, Cleveland Indians first baseman Ryan Garko, Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Aaron Hill, Kansas City Royals third baseman Alex Gordon and of course, the 2003 Amateur Draft's #1 overall selection, Tampa Bay Devil Rays rightfielder/designated hitter, Delmon Young.

*Note- all statistical information was provided courtesty of The Baseball Cube.

Piniella requests Trammell's services.

2006-10-23T08:07:00.000-05:00

According to several reports from various national media outlets, newly appointed Chicago Cubs' manager Lou Piniella is aggressively pursuing former Detroit Tigers player/manager in Alan Trammell to serve as his bench coach.

While early indications hinted that Piniella would invite long-time friend John Mclaren as the team's bench coach, Mclaren decided to accept an offer with the Seattle Mariners' coaching staff under manager Mike Hargrove.

Trammell, the once heralded Tiger great and MVP of the 1984 World Series, is most recently remembered as manager of a Tiger team that lost 119 games three seasons ago--leading to his termination following the 2005 season. After Trammell's dismissal, [Tigers general manager] Dave Dombrowski wasted little time in hiring veteran manager Jim Leyland. In 2006, Leyland revived a dormant Tigers' squad to glory by taking the team to it's first World Series since that memorable 1984 season.

In the first game of the 2006 World Series, the Tigers invited Alan to toss the ceremonial first pitch--to a tremendous ovation from the Detroit faithful. The reaction from the crowd seemed almost as if the City of Detroit had exonerated Trammell for the teams' 186-300 record during his three year tenure as manager.

Make no mistake about it, Alan Trammell is a much better manager than his winning percentage indicates--and he will manage again.

In Chicago, Lou Piniella has promised that a winning atmosphere will be restored at the "Friendly Confines". As of right now, the Chicago Cubs are suffering from the longest championship drought in all of professional sports. If Trammell wishes to improve upon his credentials for future managerial positions, repairing the Cubs' franchise would definitely re-establish Alan as a winner.

Perhaps the Cubs have an alterior motive in regards to Trammell. Piniella is no spring chicken at 63 and may not have many years left in baseball. Is this a way for the Cubs to groom Trammell as their "heir-apparent" to the throne--rather the guillotine, that is Cubs' manager? Lou is a hard-nosed manager that stresses the importance of fundamentally sound baseball and could definitely teach Trammell a thing or two.

Whether or not the Cubs have any plans for Trammell beyond the immediate future is uncertain. Alan just may be the key ingredient needed to Piniella's staff in improving a horrendous offensive Cubs unit that compiled the lowest on base percentage of any National League team in 2006.

Sweet Lou's incumbent Cubs' team is in dire urgency to field a winner and Trammell is desperate to shed his recent reputation in Detroit. Hopefully, a union between the parties two provides the recipe for success.

Alan Trammell is a great baseball man that understands the game through and through and would be an excellent addition to the Chicago Cubs--in any capacity.

Is this the last chance for the Cardinals?

2006-10-20T22:46:00.000-05:00

For the second time in the last three years, the St. Louis Cardinals are headed to the World Series.

Hopefully, for the sake of [Cardinals manager] Tony LaRussa's sanity, the Cards fare better than their pathetic display in 2004 when the team was swept out of the series by the Boston Red Sox.

After an incredible seven game series with the New York Mets, the question beckoned--is this the last time the Cardinals will reach the World Series under LaRussa's guidance?

LaRussa, 62, only has one World Series Championship title on his managerial resume--in 1989 with the Oakland Athletics. With the state that his Cardinals team is in heading into the winter, Tony is definitely going to be hard pressed to win another ring in the fore-seeable future.

Although the Cardinals will have two of baseball's best in Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter for years to come, the rest of the team is in shambles. The problem begins with starting pitching.Outside of Carpenter, much of the rotation is headed into free agency. Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan and the injury-riddled Mark Mulder are all expected to test the market at the end of the Cardinals playoff run. Besides Carpenter, 25 year old former USC star Anthony Reyes is the only member of the 2006 rotation under contract for next season.

In what capacity is phenom Adam Wainwright used heading into the '07 season?

With former closer Jason Isringhausen's inconsistencies and injury concerns, Wainwright stepped into the roll--with great success. Through out the post-season, Wainwright continues to confuse opposing hitters with his confusing curveball out of the bullpen.

Due to Wainwright's incredible season, it is believed that [Cardinals general manager] Walt Jocketty will desire to utilize the youngster in his starting rotation--leaving a gigantic hole at closer.

Perhaps the team's largest area of concern involves veterans Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen.

Edmonds is more than likely either headed to another team or possibly retirement. St. Louis is unlikely to bring back the center fielder after years of injury problems, not to mention his $10 million option would be a rather risky investment.

Although Rolen is under contract until the 2010 season, the former Philly is rumored to be on the chopping block. Similar to Edmonds, Rolen is coming off another season plagued by injuries. Plus, according to reports from Fox Sports, Rolen and LaRussa are no longer on speaking terms during the post season, after the third baseman was benched in favor of utility man Scott Spiezio in Game 2 of the NLCS.

With so many other teams, in the same division as the Cardinals, competing against each other in a free-agent market that lacks depth in many areas, it will be difficult for the Cardinals to recover.

Aside from [right fielder] Juan Encarnacion, St. Louis' outfield will receive a complete make-over along as will a rotation that remained consistently productive for the better part of a decade.

With all the impending changes at Busch Stadium this winter, the perennial playoff representatives from the NL Central may be hard pressed to make a return to the post-season in 2007.

Next season could very well be Tony LaRussa's last season in St. Louis--his contract expires following the '07 season. For LaRussa to consider managing beyond next season, Jocketty must make a big splash in the free-agent market.

For the Cardinals, time is growing short--Tony better make this series count--it's more than likely his last

Time for the Cubs to move on without Prior.

2006-10-19T11:14:00.000-05:00

Mark Prior. His name alone invokes the strongest opinions--negative and positive, of many baseball fans in America.

He may be one of the most talented pitchers in the game today, but Mark William Prior is far from the most durable. After his break-through 2003 season (18-6, 2.43 ERA, 245 strikeouts in 211 1/3 innings), Prior seemed destined to lead the Cubs' pitching staff for years with his so-called "flawless" mechanics. After three consecutive injury-plagued campaigns from the former USC star, it seems more likely that Prior's legacy will be revered as one of baseball's most memorable "what ifs".

Despite the countless number of injuries Prior has faced the past few seasons, the Chicago Cubs management team of [then CEO/President] Andy MacPhail and [general manager] Jim Hendry continued to build the rotation around him and his oft-injured counter-part in Kerry Wood. Knowing that the once "Dynamic Duo" of Cubs' pitchers had spent almost as much time on the disabled list as on the active roster, Hendry and Company did little insure the stability of the rotation and remained optimistic that their star pitchers would produce. After the latest reports from [Cubs' trainer] Mark O' Neal that Prior's status for the start of Spring Training is "to be determined", the Cubs have finally realized the truth--that it is time to rebuild without Prior in mind.

The only [former Cubs manager] Dusty Baker mainstay, pitching coach Larry Rothschild offered up his thoughts on Prior's situation in the Daily Herald.

“It’s not to say that he can’t come back because he should, but I don’t know that we can go to spring training depending on that and being left short. I think we’re approaching it that we need to get the rotation set, and if he’s back, it’s going to be a luxury for us.”

The only way the Cubs begin to move forward is by everyone in the Cubs' management team accepting the fact that Mark Prior may not be an option--ever again--which appears to be the case. Although losing one of the game's most gifted talents is difficult to over-come, the Cubs possess an incredible arm in 2006 Cy Young candidate Carlos Zambrano.

Zambrano, 25, has developed into one of premier pitchers in the National League over the course of the past three years. Since 2004, "Big Z" has a 46-21 record with an ERA of 3.14, not too mention his 600 strikeouts in 647 innings of work is the one of the best in the National League during that time-frame.

While the 2005 off-season free-agent market was rather lack-luster in terms of starting pitching, 2006 has a little more depth at the top. Oakland's Barry Zito, San Francisco's Jason Schmidt, New York Yankee's star Mike Mussina ($17 million option expected to be bought out), Houston's Andy Pettitte and 26 year old Japanese sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka, top the list of free agent starters. Other free-agent's worth mention include Toronto's Ted Lilly, St. Louis' triad of injured Mark Mulder, post-season hero Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis, as well as Texas' Adam Eaton.

Even though the free-agent market for starters has improved from a year ago, many pitchers under contract are rumored to be "on the block". Pitchers expected to change scenery include Chicago White Sox starter Freddy A. Garcia, Cleveland's Jake Westbrook and former Cubs' minor league product in Florida’s Dontrelle Willis.

Any of the names mentioned above are an improvement above Prior simply because (aside from Eaton and Mulder) they are expected to actually pitch in time for Spring Training, a task that Prior has been unable to achieve the past couple of seasons.

Admitting that Prior may never return to his glorified form in 2003 is a daunting task for Cubs' fans. Throwing in the towel on a 26 year old kid with unlimited potential is about as hard as accepting the fact that the Cubs are without a World Series title since days of Woodrow Wilson in the Oval Office.

Perhaps Jim Hendry, who is rumored to be on the "hot seat" himself after the Cubs' latest disappointment, will live up to his promise that [Cubs manager] Lou Piniella will be given the "tools he needs" to win in Chicago. Maybe Hendry will complete another deal with his buddy [Marlins general manager] Larry Beinfest to return Dontrelle Willis to the team that developed him. Who knows, maybe the Cubs can lure former Cy Young runner-up in Jason Schmidt away from the west coast.

If Hendry and [interim President] John McDonough intend to field a competitive team in 2007, then addressing the rotation is the key ingredient to success. Another 96 loss season will not be tolerated in 2007, especially with Piniella at the helm.

Admitting that Prior might not be a reliable contributor to the 2007 rotation is the first step towards turning this team around.

Now, whether or not the Cubs are ready to take the next step in building a winner is, like Prior's future--yet "to be determined".

*Note- all direct quotes were sourced via the Daily Herald. Aside from quoted material, all included context is original commentary.

A New York State of Mind? Not the Cardinals.

2006-10-18T08:19:00.000-05:00

Congratulations! The New York Mets are the champions of the National League in 2006!

Contrary to what many East Coast-biased media outlets might lead you to believe, the St. Louis Cardinals are still alive in the 2006 Championship Series. Not only is Tony LaRussa's team still pushing for a World Series bid, his team has a 3-2 series lead. From what many major broadcasting outlets would lead the nation to believe, this is far from the truth. According to what Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal and the entire ESPN family, the New York Mets have already been anointed the National League's 2006 World Series representative.

ESPN baseball "analyst" and one-time Mets' general manager, Steve Phillips shared his thoughts concerning pitcher Orlando Hernandez's status in the post-season on ESPN Radio's morning program "Mike and Mike in the Morning" Tuesday morning.

"Orlando Hernandez will be ready to pitch when the Mets face the Tigers in the World Series." an over-confident Phillips stated to hosts Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic. Greenberg responded inquisitively.

"So, you're already saying that the National League Championsip Series is over and that the Mets are going to the World Series?"

Phillips (the man responsible for trading the future-ace Scott Kazmir to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano,) mockingly laughed the question off, as if it was ignorant to believe that Cardinals stand a chance against his former team.

Never mind the fact that 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter makes his fourth post-season appearance tonight against the 25 year-old Mets rookie John Maine, the Mets have already won. Right?

Nevermind the fact that Jeff Weaver, a pitcher seemed destined to fail after his dismissal from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, has put up an ERA of 2.16 this post-season while only allowing 4 earned runs in two starts against the mighty Mets. Forget that the St. Louis Cardinals relief core of John Kinney, Randy Flores and newly-appointed closer Adam Wainwright have out-performed the heralded New York bullpen and have yet to allow an earned run all post-season (11 games, 14 2/3 innings pitched combined). It makes no difference that role players Scott Spiezio and So Taguchi repeatedly rise to the occasion when stars Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen failed to produce. Nothing that the Cardinals have done this post-season can stop the Mets, can it?

In a word--yes.

Not to take anything away from the overwhelming success the New York Mets have achieved during the course of the 2006 season, but the Mets are outmatched by the post-season tested Cardinals in this series.

The New York Yankees confirmed the validity behind the First Commandment in baseball this post-season which is--good pitching always beats good hitting. Aside from their bullpen and the 40 year old future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine (Glavine's post-season scoreless innings streak ended at 22 after an Albert Pujols solo home run), the Mets pitching is the obvious recipient of the blame for falling behind in the series. With Ace Pedro Martinez questionable to return by the 2007 All-Star break and post-season legend "El Duque" Hernandez out for the Championship Series with a hamstring problem, [Mets manager] Willie Randolph has relied on the arms of Maine, struggling former ultra-prospect Oliver Perez and the superb relief from veteran Darren Oliver.

On the offensive side of the ball, Mets' sluggers Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran have carried the work load. Delgado leads all hitters with 9 RBI in the NLCS. Beltran acted as the catalyst for the Mets victory in Game 4 with four runs off of three hits (including two solo home runs). While the hitters named Carlos have enjoyed success at the dish, the talented tandem of David Wright and Jose Reyes have failed to accumulate similar results to date. Combined the 23 year old phenoms are hitting .190 with only three runs and two RBI against the Cardinals.

Tonight, the series returns to Shea Stadium as the Mets hope to come from behind and eclipse the series at home, in similar fashion to the 1986 World Series against the Boston Red Sox.

One thing is clear. This Mets' team is not the 1986 Mets. Gone are the likes of Dwight Gooden, the Bob Ojeda and the Sid Fernandez. There is no "Bill Buckner" at first base to gift wrap a victory and send this series to a seventh game. All that is left is a depleted staff preparing to battle one of the National League's best pitchers in Carpenter.

While Mike Greenberg butchers renditions of Bee-Gees and Led Zeppelin classics, touting the Mets' praises, the St. Louis Cardinals are one victory away from shocking the entire East Coast.

*Note- all direct quotes were sourced via ESPN Radio. Aside from quoted material, all included context is original commentary.

Is Lou "Sweet" Enough to Lure A-Rod?

2006-10-17T08:32:00.000-05:00

As speculated for the better part of the past two weeks, it is now official that Louis Vincent Piniella will be named the manager of the Chicago Cubs during a press-conference held today at 12 PM CST from Wrigley Field. While many Cub-purists remained optimistic that Peoria-native and former Cub catcher, Joe Girardi would be successor to Dusty Baker, [Cubs general manager] Jim Hendry laid those hopes to rest with the following statement Monday.

"I really feel strongly that Lou is the perfect guy for the task. I think he is very enthused. And his winning track record speaks for itself. I'm very, very pleased, and I think Lou will be a good fit for the Cubs and the city."

Sources close to the Cubs state that Piniella's deal is for three years (with an option for a fourth) and worth in the neighborhood of $10-12 million. Piniella's coaching staff will include AAA Iowa Cubs manager Mike Quade, long-time friend John McClaren and the familiar Larry Rothschild returning to handle the pitching staff, a very un-popular decision to many Cub-faithful.

Now that the Cubs managerial search has ended, the team can move forward in their attempt to recover the ashes of another failed season at Wrigley. In this process, there is speculation that Lou Piniella's arrival may attract another high-profile name to the Cubs in Alex Rodriguez. The two-time American League Most Valuable Player, A-Rod has been harshly criticized by the New York media and fan base for his lack of postseason production and terrible fielding season (lead all AL third basemen with 24 errors) and is likely headed out of the "Big Apple". Piniella has been likened as a "father-like" figure to Rodriguez as his former manager with the Seattle Mariners from 1994-2000. According to sources at ESPN, Piniella is pushing the Cubs to actively pursue the game's greatest living shortstop, currently moonlighting at third base. Brian Cashman [Yankees general manager] insists that his intention is for Rodriguez to remain a Yankee, but many baseball insiders believe that a change in A-Rod's scenery is a near guarantee---including White Sox GM Kenny Williams.

According to reports on Chicago's WSCR-670 AM on Monday, the crafty GM of the 2005 World Series Champions offered a proposal to Cashman regarding A-Rod. The players discussed in a possible deal to the Yankees included, but were not limited to pitchers Freddy A. Garcia, Mark Buehrle and former Yankee Javier Vazquez. Also implicated in the deal was 28 year old third baseman Joe Crede, coming off a great season of .283/.323/.506 with 30 home runs, 94 RBI and only 58 strikeouts in 544 at bats (compared to A-Rod's 139 strikeouts in 572 at bats.) Crede is rumored to be "on the trading block" due to impending free agency after the 2007 season and the fact that Crede's agent (and A-Rod's for that matter) is non-other-than the infamous Scott Boras, notorious for demanding the highest monetary compensation for his clients. Crede is also said to be "expendable" due in large part to the rise of talented third baseman Josh Fields in the White Sox farm system. The proposal was reportedly turned down by Cashman.

If the Yankees turned down a proposal including any of three great starting pitchers (which is currently the Yankees' biggest concern heading into the 2007 season) and an incredible third baseman---defensively and offensively, how does Piniella believe that the Cubs have a chance to trade for A-Rod? The Cubs, a team that only managed 66 wins in 2006, have little to offer the Yankees without mortgaging their immediate future. The days of the prospect-rich farm Cubs farm system went out with the trade of Dontrelle Willis to the Florida Marlins prior to the 2003 season.

There is still talent in the system, just very little. Prized left handed pitching sensation Donald Veal (6-2 with a 1.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP with 88 strikeouts in 80 innings pitched in 2006 for Daytona of the Florida South League, the Cubs' High A affiliate) is approaching his major league debut in the next couple of seasons. Veal, along with 2B Eric Patterson, (Corey brother) SP Mark Pawelek and CF Felix Pie bring the farm system moderate credibility.

Carlos Zambrano? Rich Hill? Those are definitely two names that will not be involved in any trades this winter, even if that trade includes one of the game's most dynamic stars. Carlos Zambrano has developed into not only the Cubs number one starter, but quite possibly the best pitcher in the National League the past three seasons. Without the once beloved Mark Prior as the focal point of the starting rotation, Zambrano is clearly the starter to build around if this team intends to win any time in the near future. While Zambrano has become a Cy Young caliber pitcher for the Cubs, Rich Hill has finally progressed into the pitcher that the team had hoped for. Rich Hill started his professional career terribly (9.13 ERA in 23.2 innings pitched in 2005, his debut season) and it seemed the trend was destined to continue early in 2006. After a late July call-up from AAA Iowa, Hill was dominant. The last month of the season, Hill posted a 3-1 record with a 1.93 ERA, .178 opponent’s batting average with 50 strikeouts in 42 innings of work. If Hendry refused to move Hill for [Baltimore Orioles SS Miguel] Tejada a year ago, he certainly will not trade him after he's proven his worth.

So what is left to trade? Would the Yankees, a team that has also lost a step in their farm system, accept an offer including the best Cubs prospects and middle relievers? One thing is certain, the Yankees have no desire what-so-ever to help the Chicago White Sox improve their already powerful team and a deal with-in the AL East is highly unlikely as well. Do the talent-rich Angels stand a chance to land A-Rod with an Ervin Santana and the versatile Chone Figgins?

For my money, the team that has the best chance to land Alex Rodriguez starts in the National League. If the Yankees wish to return to the World Series for the first time since 2003, moving A-Rod to an AL team would be foolish. There are three teams in the NL Central alone that will soon start bombarding Cashman with offers. Along with the Cubs, the Houston Astros and the St. Louis Cardinals are both entering the market with checkbooks in hand and extra money to do so.

Don't expect Alex Rodriguez to lift his No-Trade Clause for the Houston Astros though or the St. Louis Cardinals, even with the dream combination of Albert Pujols-Alex Rodriguez. If Alex Rodriguez decides to lift his clause, there is only one team he will do so for---the Chicago Cubs.

*Note- all direct quotes were sourced via the Chicago Sun-Times. Aside from quoted material, all included context is original commentary.

Sweet Lou's Home: Chicago

2006-10-16T08:10:00.001-05:00

As a player and manager, Lou Piniella is one of the most recognizable figures in Major League Baseball for the better part of five decades and now it seems Chicago may be his final destination. According to Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times this past weekend, Chicago Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry is expected to announce that in 2007, "Sweet Lou" will make his home at 1060 West Addison. Reports of Piniella coming to Chicago are quite shocking after claims by the New York Post recently that he was expected to be named Joe Torre's successor as Yankees' manager. After George Steinbrenner's sudden "change of heart" regarding Torre's future, (or at least his immediate future) Piniella's future in baseball was in limbo as well.

After a rough three years as manager in his hometown of Tampa Bay, Piniella spent the past summer sharing insight as an analyst for Fox Sports.

"I've had fun all summer with the broadcasting. It has given me a reprieve for a year from the dugout and the clubhouse. And it has been good in a way because it has given me a little different perspective. More of the entertainment aspect of the game. More of a light hearted approach and it's good." a rejuvenated Piniella stated prior to the start of the 2006 American League Championship Series.

It's no secret that Piniella, 63, strives for that final opportunity to manage a winner and solidify his campaign towards Cooperstown. Of the four current managerial vacancies in Major League Baseball between the San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs, Piniella insisted that the Cubs' position was his most coveted and likely his best chance to return to the World Series since his 1990 Cincinnati Reds topped the Oakland Athletics.

During his commentary for the American League Championship Series, Piniella spoke warmly of Chicago and the Cubs in general.

"I've always enjoyed going to Chicago as a player and as a manager. It's truly one of the great cities in our country. Being part of turning around the Cubs would be a challenge. You know the Cubs, basically, outside of the Yankees, they are, prestige-wise in baseball, second or third."

"With the White Sox winning just a short year ago, it was so great for the city. So it would be great if that could be duplicated on the North Side-and quickly."

Now, sources close to the Cubs [via De Luca] report that contractual details are being constructed today and that the team expects to announce Lou Piniella as the 48th manager of the Chicago Cubs sometime Tuesday. Even though Hendry received permission to speak to another "dream candidate" of his in San Diego's Bruce Bochy, Hendry's original plan is being realized.

The question is....Does Lou Piniella know something that Cubs fans are unaware of? Aside from the lure of Cub-nation and the immediate worship from the community he is soon to receive, does Piniella honestly think that the Cubs are a team on the rise? Can a team that invested their future so heavily on the arms of the frequently injured Mark Prior and Kerry Wood become the 2007 season's version of the Detroit Tigers? Perhaps this is Lou's thought process heading into a seemingly doomed career decision that has yet to end well for anyone in his line of work.

According to reports from both the Daily Herald [Barry Rozner] and the Chicago Sun-Times [De Luca] the Cubs have promised to bring the team payroll to $115 million. Contract extensions are expected to be offered to Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano. In addition, Kerry Wood ($13.5 million option, $3 million buy-out) and Wade Miller are more than likely to be resigned to the popular Cubs "incentive-laden" contract.

Do Jim Hendry and Piniella honestly believe that Alfonso Soriano, Barry Zito, Carlos Lee or Jason Schmidt to honestly register on the Cubs radar?

According to reports last week from ESPN.com, Alfonso Soriano rejected a 5 year contract extension from the Washington Nationals worth $70 million. Will the Cubs be willing to pay Soriano upwards of $75 million?While the free-agent market is rather slim pickings, there are quite a few talented players reportedly on the "trading block." Amongst the players rumored to be available are Dontrelle Willis, Freddy A. Garcia, Vernon Wells and of course, Alex Rodriguez. Is there a chance that Hendry and Piniella, Rodriguez's manager from 1994-2000 with the Seattle Mariners, actually think that the "Boss" will move the former two-time AL MVP? Rodriguez has always looked up to Piniella and might believe that his former manager could cure his struggles.

For my money, hiring Piniella (although Bochy would have been a better long-term decision,) is a move that impacts the Chicago Cubs immediately. Of course, the team is far from rising from the ashes of a despicable 96 loss campaign, but it would seem now there is at least a flicker of light towards the end of the tunnel. Not only is this Jim Hendry's last chance to resurrect his job, but it also may be Sweet Lou's final voyage towards baseball's Hall of Fame.

Make one thing very clear, 98 years without a championship is too long for any team.

*Note- all direct quotes were sourced via the Chicago Sun-Times. Aside from quoted material, all included context is original commentary.