MLB 365 Projection: Alfonso Soriano

2007 - Cubs - .273/.345/.548/.893, 39 HR, 88 RBI, 40 2B, 36 SB, 105 R

Cubs GM Jim Hendry shocked the entire baseball world by landing the market’s most coveted free-agent this offseason in Alfonso Soriano. With the extraordinary power numbers that Soriano posted with the Nationals a season ago in cavernous R.F.K. Stadium, Soriano should excel in the hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. Although Soriano became the first player in MLB history with 40 home runs, 40 stolen bases and 40 doubles, his V.O.R.P. (Value Over Replacement Player) as a leadoff hitter is minimal at best. Soriano’s .351 on base percentage (OBP) of 2006 was a career high, much better than his career OBP of .325. According to Hendry, Soriano is the incumbent leadoff hitter for the Cubs in 2007. For Soriano to achieve success as a leadoff hitter in Chicago, he must maintain his patience at the plate.

Although Soriano has only hit above .300 in a season once, his power and speed make up for his lower batting average—but Soriano would likely benefit from moving down in the order—to perhaps the third or fifth hole.

Again, Soriano should maintain his average power and stolen base numbers in 2007—especially in a weaker NL Central and at Wrigley—but he may not post 40/40/40 seasons 8 years from now when he enters the final season of his contract with the Cubs.